Ten Billion Meals Per Week May Get Lost Globally Due to War

The CEO of one of the world's leading fertilizer producers has issued a stark warning citing that the escalating conflict in Iran could jeopardize up to ten billion meals per week globally.
Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of fertilizer giant Yara, told the BBC that hostilities in the Gulf have paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for the supply of fertilizers and their essential ingredients. This disruption is expected to hit the world's poorest nations the hardest.
A Massive Deficit in Production

The scale of the supply shock is already being felt across the industry. Holsether pointed out that approximately 500,000 tons of nitrogen fertilizer were currently missing from global production due to the conflict. Without nitrogen fertilizer, yields for certain crops could plummet by as much as 50% in a single season. And, the resulting scarcity could trigger a global "bidding war" for food, pricing out the most vulnerable populations.

Impact on Farmers and Consumers

While developed nations like the UK are unlikely to see empty shelves, the financial ripple effects will be unavoidable. Consumers can expect to see rising grocery bills within the next few months as food producers pass on increased costs.

Farmers are currently caught in a financial "squeeze." While the costs of energy, diesel, and fertilizer have surged, the market prices for their crops have not yet risen enough to cover these overheads.
A Call for Global Consideration

Holsether urged European leaders to weigh the consequences of their economic responses. He warned that a price war driven by wealthy nations could have devastating impacts on the food security of the "most vulnerable" people in developing countries.

If production levels do not stabilize, the world faces a daunting mathematical reality: a lack of nutrients in the soil translates directly to billions of missing meals on the table.

The ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran has sent global fertilizer markets into a tailspin, threatening to plunge millions into food insecurity. Experts warn that the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime corridor—is creating a supply vacuum that could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.
The Strait of Hormuz: A Global Food Chokepoint

According to the United Nations, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical artery for global agriculture, with one-third of the world’s fertilizers—including urea, potash, ammonia, and phosphates—passing through its waters. Since the onset of the conflict, fertilizer prices have skyrocketed by 80%, making it nearly impossible for many farmers to maintain current crop yields.
The "Bidding War" for Food

Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of fertilizer giant Yara, warned that a prolonged conflict will force a dangerous competition between nations. While wealthier European countries may have the financial "robustness" to absorb higher prices, they would effectively be outbidding poorer nations.

"Who are we buying the food away from?" Holsether asked, noting that the most vulnerable populations in developing nations simply cannot compete in a global price war.

Economic Impact and Inflation

The shockwaves are being felt in domestic economies worldwide:

The United Kingdom: The Food and Drink Federation predicts food inflation could hit 10% by December. The Bank of England has already adjusted its forecasts, suggesting a rise to at least 4.6% by September.

Asia and the Pacific: This region is expected to see a 24% increase in food insecurity—the highest relative spike globally.

A Growing Humanitarian Emergency

The UN World Food Programme has released a devastating outlook for 2026. The combined economic and supply chain fallout from the Middle East war is projected to push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger.

As the costs of essential farming inputs rise and availability shrinks, the struggle for food affordability is rapidly shifting from an economic challenge to a matter of survival for millions across the globe.  (Source BBC)