Casting Away Farmers And Starving Consumers

Questions regarding national economic growth are typically reserved for urban discussions. For Abdul Matin, a farmer in a remote village in Bogra, such questions are incomprehensible. His mind is occupied with different concerns: Has the seed arrived at the village market? Will he be able to secure the necessary fertilizer without trouble? Most importantly, at the end of the day, will the harvest cover the production costs?

At one time, Bangladesh was proudly called an agrarian country—a status that still persists in bureaucratic rhetoric. However, the data compiled by those very bureaucrats suggests that over the last 10 years, the country has faced a severe food crisis. Essentially, by keeping farmers in the dark regarding modern agricultural science, the country’s 180 million hungry citizens have been forced to bear the consequences of a "joint (real-life dramma) production" between bureaucrats and businessmen.

Let’s analyze some official statistics. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) is the sole agency responsible for releasing official data to the public. According to its food production data for January, between 2015 and 2025, production costs or price levels in the food production sector have increased by approximately 77.30%. Notably, the base year for these indicators remains the 2015-16 fiscal year.

Analysis of the report shows that the increase in price indices is most severe for import-dependent food items, such as edible oil and sugar. The prices of these imported goods have surged by 150% to 180%. However, the situation is different for domestic production. While the price increase for locally produced goods like rice or fish has remained below 50%, it still exerts a massive impact on the lives of ordinary people.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 550 development projects have been implemented or are currently underway over the last decade and a half. The primary goals of these projects were to ensure food security, innovate high-yielding varieties, and mechanize agriculture. Approximately 561 projects (both large and small) were undertaken through the Ministry and its affiliated agencies. In these 17 years, total expenditure under the Annual Development Program (ADP) in the agricultural sector has exceeded Tk 52,000 crores. This figure accounts only for development projects; beyond this, huge sums are provided annually as subsidies to input sectors such as fertilizer and irrigation. During this period, more than Tk1.5 lakh crores has been provided in subsidies, which the government claims helped reduce farmers' production costs. Furthermore, the research budget for developing hundreds of high-yielding and stress-tolerant varieties of rice, wheat, and maize has increased nearly fivefold over the last 17 years.

Despite all this investment, the country’s food crisis continues to escalate. A recent global report by the Global Network Against Food Crises (GNAFC) and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) revealed that approximately 16 million people in the country suffered from acute food insecurity during the tenure of the interim government. This vast population is currently at "Phase 3" or higher on the IPC scale, which is considered an "emergency crisis" by global standards.

The report mentions that while the number of food-insecure people reached 23.5 million by the end of 2024, it slightly decreased to 16 million by 2025 and early 2026. However, this number remains significantly higher than the average rate of the past decade.

A sector-wise analysis of food products in the BBS report reveals an even more alarming picture. Let’s take a look:

Production of Edible Oil and Fats
From the beginning of the analyzed period, the edible oil sector has witnessed the highest instability and record price hikes within the food industry. Taking the 2015-16 base year index as 100.00, the index as of January 2026 stands at 277.51. This means that in a span of just one decade, the price of edible oil alone has increased by 177.51%.
An analysis of these 10 years of data shows that while the index for this sector reached a peak of 325.26 in July 2022, it has since decreased slightly and stabilized at the current 277.51. This abnormal surge is primarily a reflection of international market volatility due to heavy import dependency.

Bakery Product Production
The second-highest price increase in the BBS data is seen in the bakery industry. This sector is also largely dependent on imported wheat. As of the end of January this year, the production price index stood at 278.39 points. Compared to the 2015-16 fiscal year, the production cost of bakery products has increased by 178.39%. This indicates that the price of bakery products has risen nearly 2.75 times over the last decade. A consistent price hike was observed in this sector specifically between 2023 and 2026.

Sugar and Molasses Production
The production cost of sweets and sugar-related products has also increased at record rates. Compared to the base year, the sugar production index reached 255.70 points this January. In percentage terms, the production cost has increased by 155.70% to date. Instability in the sugar market reached its peak over the last few years; the index crossed the 200 mark in 2022 and staying at 255.70 at the beginning of 2026.

Food Grains and Starch Products
The state of the wheat and other grain processing sectors is also alarming. Compared to the period discussed, the index currently rests at 248.38 points. Mathematically, the production cost in this sector has increased by 148.38% over 10 years. In November 2022, the index in this sector peaked at 292.13. Although it has decreased slightly now, it remains nearly 1.5 times higher than the base year.

Meat Processing and Preservation
Currently, the production cost index for the meat processing industry is 168.17, representing a 68.17% increase over the base year. Costs in the meat production and preservation industry have risen steadily, positioning the index near its all-time peak in 2026.

Rice and Rice Milling
The production cost of rice, the country’s staple food, has also increased significantly. As the primary food grain, its production costs have risen at an alarming rate. Compared to the base year, the current rice production cost index (January 2026) stands at 163.71 points. This means the cost of producing rice has increased by 63.71% over the last 10 years.

A recently published report by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) highlighted a high level of inequality in the distribution of cultivable land.

According to the report, marginal farmers—who constitute 41% of the total farming population—cultivate only 11% of the land. Conversely, a mere 6% of large-scale farmers control one-fourth of the country's arable land. Approximately 40% of farming households are entirely landless. Furthermore, only 23% of farmers receive assistance from agricultural extension services.

Another IFPRI study found that the profitability of rice cultivation has been declining since 2011. For example, in the 2011 Boro season, the profit per acre from rice cultivation was Tk 9,717, but by 2015, it had dropped to nearly one-third—Tk3,080 per acre. According to the research results, this profit became negative by 2018.

Researchers also observed that since tasks like land preparation, irrigation, spraying, and threshing are heavily mechanized in Bangladesh, most agricultural machinery is rented. The rental market is the key for small farmers to access agricultural equipment. As of 2018, approximately 98% of land preparation was done using machinery. In the same year, rice farmers used pumps to irrigate 87% of their Boro land.

According to the BBS, the growth rate of the agricultural sector in the GDP for the 2024-25 fiscal year stood at 1.79%, the lowest in 11 years. This rate was last seen in the 2015-16 fiscal year. In the preceding 2014-15 fiscal year, the growth in this sector was 2.45%.
Additional Sectors

The rapid rise of price indices in the dairy and animal feed sectors is creating new concerns within the overall food system. According to the latest data, using the 2015-16 fiscal year as the base, significant shifts have been observed in various sub-sectors as of January 2026.

In the dairy products sector, the price index has risen to 156.85, which is 56.85% higher than the base year. Stakeholders suggest that increasing costs for cattle feed, transportation, and production have accelerated price pressures in this sector. This has a direct impact on consumers, raising fears that the price of milk and dairy products may soon fall out of reach for the general public.

Meanwhile, the animal feed sector has seen an even higher rate of increase. As of January 2026, the index for this sector stands at 164.28, indicating a growth of 64.28%. Analysts believe that the rising cost of animal feed is driving up the production costs of both meat and milk, thereby fueling inflation across the entire food supply chain.

However, the increase has not been uniform across all food processing industries. The processing of fish and aquatic animals has seen a relatively lower increase, with the price index reaching 130.84—a rise of 30.84%. Similarly, the fruit and vegetable preservation sector recorded an index of 122.12, reflecting a modest growth of only 22.12%.