Pakistan’s seven decade old sore

Seven decades is not a short period. A conflict that has continued for so long has once again returned to the center of international attention. Balochistan, Pakistan’s seven-decade-old sore. It has become a symbol of one of the most complex geopolitical crises in South and Central Asia. Rich in natural gas, copper, gold, the vast mineral reserves of Reko Diq, and home to the Arabian Sea port of Gwadar, the region has drawn the attention of global powers.

Recently, Baloch leaders living abroad declared an ‘independent Balochistan.’ Meanwhile, Pakistan’s security forces have continued a series of operations across the territory. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has also shown no signs of slowing down, carrying out one attack after another. Is Balochistan merely an unstable province of Pakistan, or the center of a long-standing nationalist movement? The answer lies in history.

The History of a Divided Homeland

Historic Greater Balochistan was not confined to what is now a single province of Pakistan. It stretched across present-day southwestern Pakistan, Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province, and parts of southwestern Afghanistan. During the colonial era, various border agreements, followed by the 1947 Partition of British India, divided the region among three states. Today, the largest portion lies in Pakistan’s Balochistan Province, where most ethnic Baloch people live and where demands for independence remain strongest.

Much of present-day Balochistan was once part of the Khanate of Kalat. Although it was a princely state under British India, authority remained in the hands of Baloch rulers. British rule ended in 1947. The ruler of Kalat, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, declared it an independent state. However, Kalat was incorporated into Pakistan on March 27, 1948. Pakistan maintains that the accession was legal. Baloch nationalists, however, argue that it resulted from political and military pressure. These competing claims form the foundation of the Balochistan dispute.

Seven Decades Under the Shadow of Guns

The first rebellion in Balochistan took place in 1948, although it was unsuccessful. Major uprisings followed in 1958 and again between 1962 and 1963, repeatedly turning Balochistan into a conflict zone. The most significant escalation came in 1973, when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto dismissed the elected government of Balochistan, triggering years of intense fighting. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) emerged as an active armed group in the early 1970s. Pakistan banned the BLA in 2006. The same year, influential Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti was killed. The incident gave new momentum to the BLA and attracted increased international attention.

A Geopolitical Chessboard

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was launched in 2015. Gwadar Port in Balochistan is a key hub of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As a result, Balochistan holds strategic importance for China.

While China and Pakistan view the project as a driver of development, Baloch nationalists see it differently. They argue that although Baloch land and resources are being used, the local population has been deprived of the benefits. As a result, Chinese engineers and infrastructure projects have become targets of armed attacks. Violence involving the BLA and other armed groups, along with operations by Pakistani security forces, has kept Balochistan volatile.

Balochistan lies between Iran, Afghanistan and the Arabian Sea, close to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important energy routes. This gives the region significant strategic value. For China, it provides access to the Indian Ocean. For Pakistan, it represents a cornerstone of the country’s economic future. Major copper and gold deposits, including Reko Diq, have made the region even more significant. As a result, instability in Balochistan has implications for China, Afghanistan, Iran, India and even the broader Indo-Pacific strategy.

What Lies Ahead for Balochistan?

Predicting Balochistan’s future remains difficult under the current circumstances. However, the region could move in one of three directions.

First, armed attacks in support of independence could intensify further. That could prompt even tougher security operations by Pakistan, prolonging the conflict.

Second, tensions could ease if greater autonomy, political dialogue and the equitable distribution of resources become the basis for compromise. Such a process could gradually pave the way for peace.

Third, if the conflict expands, its consequences could be far-reaching. Beyond Pakistan’s stability, it could affect China’s strategic investments, regional trade and the broader geopolitics of South and Central Asia.

The Balochistan issue is no longer confined to Pakistan’s domestic politics. It has become a geopolitical equation in which history, ethnic identity, vast natural resources, China’s strategic investments, regional security and questions of international law converge. Therefore, the future of Balochistan will not be determined solely by Islamabad or Baloch insurgents. The broader strategic realities of South and Central Asia will also shape the region’s future.