Entomologists' fears regarding Dengue coming true!

Clouds playing across the sky and intermittent rain—this weather seems to be a paradise for dengue. Entomologists had warned of this risk earlier, and now those fears are turning into reality. Dengue infections in the country could reach their peak in September and October.

So far this year, the number of infected cases has surpassed 46,000, with 133 lives lost. A large portion of those deceased are women, and young people are also among the victims. Experts say the current outbreak could break the records of 2024–25. State Minister for Health and Family Welfare M. A. Muhit himself expressed concern, stating that dengue infections in the country could hit their highest level during the last week of this month and early October. The State Minister for Health made these remarks on Wednesday morning during a discussion meeting at the Dhaka Reporters Unity.

Entomologists and public health experts in the country had issued a similar forecast. They had previously warned that without proper measures to control dengue, the number of dengue patients would start rising in July, gain further momentum in August, and take a turn for the worse in September and October, leading to an increase in both infections and deaths.

Data from the Health Emergency Operation Center and Control Room of the Directorate General of Health Services shows that 72 of those who died from dengue this year were women. Most of the deceased belong to the young and working-age demographic.

Speaking to Agamir Somoy, entomologist and Professor of Zoology at Jahangirnagar University, Dr. Kabirul Bashar, said, "There is a forecasting model to identify the risk of a dengue outbreak in advance, which has been in use in the country for 10 years, and its predictive results have been accurate."

The entomologist mentioned that the dengue forecasting model relies on five parameters: rainfall patterns and amount, temperature, air humidity, Aedes mosquito larval density, and the number of dengue patients. He added, "This time the dengue situation will be worse, surpassing the severity of 2024–25. However, infections will be lower than in 2023. Since record-keeping began in 2000, 2023 saw the highest number of patients and deaths, with 321,179 infected cases and 1,705 deaths."

Kabirul Bashar said that this year's prolonged rainfall, along with the current temperature and humidity, is ideal for Aedes mosquito breeding. Aedes mosquito larvae capable of driving a severe nationwide outbreak are being observed across the country, and the high volume of existing patients will further drive up transmission.
According to Be-Nazir Ahmed, public health expert and former director of the Disease Control Division at the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS), the government should have taken appropriate and effective measures to control dengue by heeding the early warnings of entomologists and public health experts. In his view, doing so would have prevented another public health issue from intensifying alongside measles. Managing both measles and dengue simultaneously in a populous country is difficult and will only increase deaths and suffering.

Data from the DGHS shows that in the last 24 hours, 1,463 people were hospitalized with dengue, and three died—one in Dhaka, one in Mymensingh, and one in Rangpur. Last month, the total number of dengue patients was 20,536. However, in just the first nine days of the current month, the number of patients reached 11,092. On Tuesday, nine people died and 1,571 were infected with the mosquito-borne disease in a single day, marking the highest single-day toll for both deaths and cases this year.

Director of Bangladesh Shishu Hospital and Institute in Shyamoli, Capital City, Mirza Md. Ziaul Islam, stated that the pressure of dengue patients is rising. Due to this influx, patients suffering from other illnesses cannot be admitted. Up to August 7 of this year, 328 patients received treatment for dengue at this hospital, resulting in the deaths of two children.

The State Minister also expressed concern that a sudden surge in dengue cases could lead to shortages of hospital beds, intravenous saline, and dengue testing kits. He noted, "We began stockpiling these two months ago. Under current operational conditions, there is an adequate supply of dengue test kits and saline in stock. I have also taken steps to ensure this supply remains uninterrupted in the future."

Mushtaq Hossain, public health expert and former chief scientific officer at the Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), stated that the government is focusing more on medical treatment than on controlling Aedes mosquito larvae. While this approach has yielded some positive outcomes, it will not reduce the overall number of dengue patients.

The public health specialist advised year-round destruction of mosquito breeding grounds with equal priority and suggested expanding treatment facilities at secondary-level hospitals, which he believes will reduce the mortality rate.

To tackle the dengue situation, the government will launch a three-month nationwide campaign. Prime Minister Tarique Rahman will officially inaugurate the program on Saturday morning at the South Plaza of the National Parliament. State Minister for Local Government Mir Shahe Alam announced this information yesterday during a press conference held at the Secretariat to mark National Dengue Prevention Day.