What scientific research revealed about the cause of disaster along Nepal-Tibet
Reuters photo.
Last month, a glacier collapse caused devastating floods in Nepal and Tibet. More than a thousand people died. The first scientific study of the disaster has suggested that climate change may have played a role.
Researchers identified unusually warm conditions before the glacier collapse. The collapse sent a huge mass of 110 million cubic meters of snow and ice crashing into the valley below. This caused an almost unprecedented sudden flood. The flood struck downstream communities without any warning.
Professor Dr. Friederike Otto of the Department of Climate Science at Imperial College London, who led the study, said, "The people of Nepal are paying with their lives for a crisis caused by burning fossil fuels thousands of miles away."
She said, "When warming destabilizes the roof of the world, no matter how many local adaptation measures are taken, it is not possible to fully protect vulnerable people living downstream from destruction on such a large scale. If faster action is not taken to transition to zero emissions from fossil fuels, disasters of this magnitude will inevitably be seen more in the coming years."
Reuters photo.
On August 26, a huge section of a hanging glacier and rock, covering about 200,000 square meters, collapsed from Langtang Lirung mountain. More than 1,300 people were killed and more than 5,000 are still missing.
The mass fell about 1,400 meters and hit the valley floor with such force that the vibration was recorded as an earthquake. The ice turned into water, creating a powerful torrent of ice-cold water. It raced down the river channel at more than 110 miles per hour.
The devastating torrent of water, ice, rocks, and mud swept away families, homes, settlements, roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Survivors were left isolated and trapped.
The study said, "A rock collapse of this size is rare. The probable rate of one such event occurring per year is about one in 1,000 to 10,000 years." It also said, "This event shows that the limits of adaptation capacity are already being reached."
Otto and her team's study differs from previous studies by the World Weather Attribution project at Imperial College because the role of climate change could not be linked to a single specific weather event.
Instead, researchers found that the disaster occurred due to a combination of several factors. These factors became more pronounced due to decades of atmospheric warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
Reuters photo.
Dr. Ben Clarke, who researches extreme weather and climate change at Imperial, said the long-term changes that occurred there before the glacier collapse clearly show the "fingerprint of climate change."
Key findings of the study include:
◉ In the area where the collapse occurred, the area has warmed by about 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times due to climate change. In July and August alone, warming increased by about 1.5 degrees Celsius.
◉ July and August 2026 were the warmest period locally recorded. In the days before the collapse, temperatures were 5 degrees Celsius higher than the 30-year average.
◉ Since the 1980s, the snowline in the Himalayas has risen by about 100 meters per decade. As a result, higher and longer-lasting melting temperatures affect mountain slopes built on permafrost, weakening the slopes.
◉ Warming has already caused significant glacier retreat. This has removed ice that helped maintain stability around the collapse site and caused meltwater to accumulate.
◉ The 7.8 magnitude earthquake in 2015 also played a role in the collapse of mountain slopes. However, the specific contribution of that earthquake to the August disaster could not be confirmed.
Otto, Clarke, and the WWA team said their research did not directly blame climate change as the root cause of this disaster. Rather, it was seen as a factor in creating instability on the existing geological structure.
Clarke said, "We have seen that climate change is transforming high mountain environments and influencing many of the possible causes of this collapse."
Nepal has formally applied to the United Nations Loss and Damage Fund for financial assistance to deal with the destruction caused by the floods. This process requires evidence linking the damage to the climate crisis. Nepal's Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal also called on high-emitting countries like China and India to "wake up" and acknowledge their joint responsibility for this disaster.
Madhav Upreti, senior technical advisor to the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, a partner of the WWA, said that only a major reduction in global emissions can begin effective action to address "the damage that vulnerable frontline communities are facing."
He said, "Alongside the unimaginable scale of the humanitarian disaster, the cost of recovery from this disaster is also enormous. For a country that has contributed virtually nothing to creating this problem, it makes it even clearer that ensuring justice is essential in helping climate-vulnerable countries adapt to a problem they did not create."
(Source: The Guardian)
