Bangladesh grows more food, but 20 cr people still face hunger
Graphics: Agamir Somoy
Despite rising rice, wheat, and corn production and vast government food grain reserves, nearly 2 crore people in Bangladesh could face severe food insecurity between September and December.
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) made these remarks in a Bangladesh brief on Global Information and Early Warning System on Food and Agriculture (GIEWS) report published on 4 September. The crisis is not due to a shortage of food, but rather the ability to buy food.
FAO said due to a decline in people’s purchasing power, even though there is sufficient food in the market, it is not properly reaching the plates of many low-income families. Coupled with this, high inflation, increased fuel and transportation costs, and damage to livelihoods caused by floods in various areas are elevating food risks.
According to the FAO report, nearly 1.81 crore people could fall into Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Phase 3 or higher levels of severe food insecurity from September to December.
During the period from May to August, the figure was around 1.53 crore. In other words, the number of at-risk individuals has increased within a span of just a few months. Yet, during the same period, the country’s food production scenario is not bad at all.
According to FAO estimates, total rice production could reach nearly 6.19 crore metric tons in the 2026-27 season, which is at least 5 percent higher than the long-term average production. The irrigation-dependent Boro season ended on June. This time, Boro production reached nearly 3.19 crore metric tons and Aush production reached around 41 lakh metric tons.
FAO forecasted that the production of Aman rice could also reach 2.59 crore metric tons. There is also a positive picture regarding the production of corn and wheat. According to FAO calculations, corn production reached nearly 51 lakh metric tons in July, which is 10 times higher than the average production of the last five years.
Moreover, wheat production reached a record of nearly 12 lakh metric tons in April. According to the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE), the production of corn and wheat remains at a significant level.
The government’s food stock situation is also reassuring. Food Minister Afroza Khanam informed Parliament on 3 September that until 30 August, there were 24,37,807 metric tons of food grains in government food warehouses, which is higher than the designated safety reserve.
Where lies the problem then?
According to food security analyst and agricultural economist Golam Rasul, having food in warehouses and getting that food to people’s stoves are not the same thing. People must have money in hand to buy food.
However, under the pressure of high inflation, the purchasing power of low-income people has declined. In many cases, wages are not increasing, while in other instances, income is dropping due to work or job losses.On the other hand, although domestic food production has increased, the need for imports is not decreasing; rather, in some cases, it is rising further.
According to FAO forecasts, food grain imports could reach nearly 91 lakh metric tons in the 2026-27 fiscal year, which is slightly higher than the average from 2021-22 to 2025-26. Among this, wheat imports could reach nearly 68 lakh metric tons, which is nearly five times higher than the recent five-year average.
Due to rising demand in the animal feed and fisheries sectors, corn imports could also reach nearly 18 lakh metric tons, which is nearly 10 times higher than the average. However, rice imports could decrease to 8,00,000 metric tons, down from 19 lakh metric tons in 2025.
FAO said most of the cereal grains imported into the country consist of wheat, which fulfills nearly 80 percent of the country’s cereal consumption demand. Small quantities of rice and corn are imported. Despite the growth in domestic agricultural production capacity, reliance on the international market remains to meet human food demand, animal feed, and industrial requirements.
However, there is some comforting news regarding rice and flour prices in the market. According to FAO calculations, with adequate new rice entering the market, rice prices in July were nearly 5 percent lower compared to 2025. Although flour prices rose at the beginning of the year, in July they were slightly lower compared to 2025.
Even so, overall food security risks are not diminishing. The situation of nearly 12 lakh Rohingya refugees residing in Cox’s Bazar and Bhasan Char is concerning. FAO warned that due to funding shortages in food assistance and limited livelihood opportunities, a large portion of them could fall into crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity.
Along with this comes another major concern - fuel and fertilizer prices. If the energy crisis in the international market deepens further, agricultural production costs will also rise. Agricultural economists fear that this could particularly impact the upcoming Boro season.
Golam Rasul said there is a risk of further fuel oil shortages emerging in the international market. Fertilizer prices are also rising. As a result, the upcoming Boro season could pose a challenge for farmers. Because agriculture is no longer what it used to be; it has become fuel-dependent.
Therefore, the government must move away from the mindset that food solely means the Ministry of Agriculture and take coordinated steps. The question facing Bangladesh now is not merely how many metric tons of rice, wheat, or corn were produced.
The major question is how far those food grains can be kept within people’s reach and how the food purchasing capacity of families with declining incomes can be sustained.
