Saudi pipeline strike exposes Iraq’s struggle with armed factions
Photo: REUTERS
Black smoke billowed over Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline following a drone attack launched from Iraqi territory, threatening roughly 4 percent of global oil supplies and driving Brent crude prices above $108 a barrel.
The assault provided Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi with a challenge to his commitment to bring armed groups under state authority before the scheduled final withdrawal of the US-led coalition by 30 September.
Although no group formally claimed responsibility for the 10 September strikes, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq - an umbrella group of pro-Iranian factions including Kataib Hezbollah - denied involvement, describing the operation as “an honour that we do not claim”.
Baghdad confirmed that the drones originated from Iraqi soil after security forces discovered launch tracks near the Duwayrij River in the al-Tayeb border region of Maysan province on Saturday, where an intelligence task force seized a launch structure according to Lieutenant General Saad Maan, head of Iraq’s Security Media Cell.
A senior Interior Ministry source informed Al Jazeera that a resistance splinter group likely executed the attack, highlighting the presence of factions and subgroups operating outside official command channels, though Michael Knights, a research lead at Horizon Engage, viewed front groups as a classic tactic to deter government retaliation.
Knights suggested that a cell directed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or an established armed faction conducted the strike, noting, “They just want to make it marginally harder for anyone to pin it on them.”
Facing international pressure, al-Zaidi dismissed the Maysan operations commander, formed an investigation panel, shuttered multiple Iran border crossings, and deployed heavily armed troops in Humvees across Maysan.
Factions resist state control
Many observers view al-Zaidi’s security measures as a symbolic effort to appease Saudi Arabia and the United States, noting that drones launched from Iraq previously hit Saudi oil facilities in July with alleged assistance from Iraqi-based Houthi fighters.
US and Saudi retaliatory strikes killed over 20 members of Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), including Iranian military advisers, forcing al-Zaidi to postpone a planned diplomatic trip to Riyadh.
The escalating violence threatens Iraq’s renewing ties with Saudi Arabia, which had frozen relations after Iraq’s 1990 invasion of Kuwait before resuming contact during ISIL’s rise, leading to reopened border posts in 2020 and discussions on investments, electricity, and transportation.
Following a visit to Baghdad by Saudi intelligence chief Khalid al-Humaidan, Riyadh withheld military retaliation over the 10 September attack at al-Zaidi’s request.
Lahib Higel, deputy director for Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, remarked that the strike signaled a warning to al-Zaidi, who seeks economic diversification through Saudi engagement.
Higel noted that pro-Iranian factions fear losing political leverage and oppose Iraqi economic independence from Tehran or new oil routes bypassing Hormuz, saying, “What he’s doing with the Saudis now, I think they would be seriously concerned about,” especially since several factions prioritize avenging dead fighters over commercial ties.
To manage regional alliances, al-Zaidi hosted Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in August, shortly after visiting Tehran to meet Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
Geopolitical balancing and security concerns
As a multimillionaire business executive and Shia coalition compromise candidate, al-Zaidi faces intense pressure despite remaining a favored leader for Washington.
Al-Zaidi instructed Iraqi banks to enforce US sanctions against Lebanon’s Hezbollah, requested legislation to centralize weapon control, and warned that non-compliant groups face treason charges.
However, armed groups repeatedly block enforcement; Harakat al-Nujaba fighters fired warning shots to turn away Iraqi troops south of Baghdad in July, and a judge released Nujaba intelligence officer Abbas al-Yaqoubi 48 hours after his August arrest by counterterrorism forces.
While a Baghdad court sentenced a Kataib Hezbollah member to 15 years in prison for kidnapping US journalist Shelly Kittleson in March, Higel observed that although such rulings make foot soldiers question if an operation is “worth 15 years”, she emphasized, “But in the bigger picture, this has essentially no meaningful impact,” adding, “It’s not a system that is changing.”
Key factions including Kataib Hezbollah, Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada refuse disarmament, and the state shows little willingness to confront them directly.
Knights emphasized that armed groups targeted Saudi Arabia despite risking US retaliation, saying, “That says to me [the armed factions] are completely fearless right now.”
He added that although Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service (CTS) possesses the operational capability to target faction leadership, officials lack confidence in US support because Washington ignored Saudi requests for help against Yemen’s Houthis, leaving Baghdad doubtful of assistance if resistance factions besiege the Green Zone, observing, “This is all about confidence and feeling like your partners have your back and nobody feels like that right now.”
Meanwhile, Lahib Higel warned that factions believe they can wait out Trump, adding, “I wouldn’t put it past these groups to assassinate a prime minister if it came to it.”
Source: The Guardian (adapted)
