World Bank Report: Commodity Prices May Rise Globally
Graphics: Agamir Somoy
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East and disruptions to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz have placed the global energy market under significant pressure. The World Bank has warned that if this situation persists, the world could witness the largest spike in energy prices seen in four years.
According to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, the impact will not be limited to the energy sector alone. Instead, it is expected to create substantial pressure on global commodity markets, inflation, and economic growth.
The report suggests that energy prices could rise by approximately 24% in 2026, reaching the highest levels since the period following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Overall, commodity prices are feared to increase by 16%, primarily driven by the rising costs of energy, fertilizers, and metals.
The World Bank notes that supply shortages have emerged due to hindered oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, a route responsible for nearly 35% of the world’s seaborne oil trade. The conflict has initially disrupted the supply of approximately 10 million barrels of oil per day.
In the international market, the price of Brent crude oil has already seen a massive surge. By mid-April, prices had increased by more than 50% since the start of the year.
The World Bank forecasts that the average price of Brent oil could reach $86 per barrel in 2026, up from $69 in 2025. However, if conditions deteriorate, prices could climb as high as $115.
Alongside energy, the fertilizer market is also facing severe pressure. Fertilizer prices could rise by about 31%, with urea prices potentially jumping by 60%. This pose a significant threat to global food security.
The World Food Programme has warned that if the conflict is prolonged, an additional 45 million people could face acute food insecurity. The metals market is also feeling the strain, with prices for aluminum, copper, and tin potentially reaching record highs. Simultaneously, due to geopolitical uncertainty, the price of gold and other precious metals could increase by approximately 42%.
The macroeconomic impacts are equally serious. Inflation in developing countries is projected to reach approximately 5.1% in 2026, which is higher than previous forecasts. Meanwhile, global economic growth is expected to slow down to 3.6%.
World Bank official Indermit Gill stated, "The effects of war come in waves—first energy prices rise, then food prices follow, and finally, it leads to high inflation and increased interest rates, making debt even more expensive."
