Is the Mamata era coming to an end?

West Bengal, a neighboring state of India, shares deep historical, cultural, and economic ties with Bangladesh. It is an important region for Bangladesh due to strong cross-border trade, shared language and heritage, and close people-to-people connections.

Mamata Banerjee has been ruling West Bengal for 15 years. In 2010, a political wave led by Mamata dismantled the 34-year Left Front rule marked by the red flag. However, the once-powerful Trinamool Congress under Mamata no longer appears as dominant as before.

With elections just around the corner, questions and uncertainties surround whether Mamata, widely known as ‘Didi’ (sister) in the state, will secure another victory. Doubts are being raised both within and outside her party, as well as among the public.

This time, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is actively working to shake the foundations of Didi’s political stronghold.

In the last election five years ago, the BJP won 77 seats. This time, they aim for 177. The state legislative election is referred to as the assembly election. In the previous election, Didi secured 213 seats out of a total of 294 to form the government. A party needs at least 148 seats to come to power.

No election banners, posters, rallies, or gatherings were visible during a half-hour drive from Kolkata airport to New Town.

I was a bit surprised and asked Joy, a driver from Madhyamgram, about the election situation. “I have been driving for 17 years. I never faced such trouble before. Now I get traffic cases for no reason. I have to pay fines. Didi did not allow Tata to set up a factory here. Britannia Biscuit also shut down operations. Unemployment is rising. After so many years in power, nothing is being taken care of. We need change this time,” he said.

However, there are counterarguments in favor of Didi as well. Gopal, who recently returned to Kolkata from Medinipur village, believes that Didi will win again. “However, BJP will lead in terms of votes and legislators. There has been a lot of corruption in recent years. But Didi has one advantage—cash transfers. The state government provides women and unemployed youth who have passed intermediate exams with 1,500 rupees per month. For rural marginal people, this cash support means a lot. Whether there is corruption or lack of development does not matter much to them,” he said.

BJP has also realized that Mamata’s cash transfer strategy works in electoral politics. If the BJP comes to power in the state, it has already announced plans to double the monthly allowance for women to 3,000 rupees. Modi has already visited West Bengal five times.

The state has approximately 68.2 million voters. The gender gap between male and female voters is only 1.6 million; 34.9 million men and 33.3 million women.

So what will be the deciding factor? Women voters or Muslims? The Muslim population stands at around 18 million. Most Muslim votes are believed to be in Didi’s favor. This perception is reflected in the hundreds of posters along the airport road welcoming Hajj pilgrims.

However, elections are not decided by such simple equations. Signs of crisis within Mamata’s party are also emerging from sources close to Kolkata’s urban middle class. According to a celebrity athlete, “The Modi government has passed a law in favor of those who migrated from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. That factor can now be considered.”

There is also growing uncertainty within the Trinamool Congress over the party’s strategy, including whether hiring the digital campaign firm I-PAC was the right decision. I-PAC is a private consultancy that designs election strategies, opinion polls, and social media campaigns for political parties.

Gautam Bhattacharya of Kolkata TV, one of India’s well-known media figures, offered a similar assessment, saying there is hesitation within Trinamool leaders as well. “If they do not win, criticism from both inside and outside the party is inevitable,” he said.

Several key factors are now shaping the outcome of the election—Muslim vote consolidation, nearly one million voters being removed from the electoral roll, the deployment of around 250,000 central forces in Kolkata, and allegations of corruption and development failures within the ruling party.

After two phases of voting on April 23 and April 29, attention is now focused on May 4, when results will be announced. The key question remains: is Mamata Banerjee heading toward defeat?

Fifteen years ago, the same Didi made history by ending the 34-year rule of the CPI(M). Now, the question arises—will she herself disappear from the politics of power? It is also worth noting that in the last assembly election, both the BJP’s ideological rivals—the Congress and CPI(M)—failed to win a single seat.