Europe on the Threshold of a Future Without the US

What will Europe look like without the military and political presence of the United States? It is a prior time for the Europeans to prepare such a reality. There is little doubt that U.S. President Donald Trump intends to end the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)!

He is already moving in that direction; the only remaining question is whether he will formally withdraw Washington from the alliance or simply dismantle it from within through disdain and neglect.

Regardless of the method, the disintegration of this alliance has already begun. A long-tested system like NATO usually does not collapse in a single day or with one specific move. Instead, it erodes gradually when there is a deficit of trust in the core commitment of mutual defense—the promise to stand by one another in times of danger.

This is precisely what is unfolding during Trump’s second term. The distance has widened further, especially amid the refusal of Europeans to join the disastrous wars he has pushed for in the Middle East. Meanwhile, although the Republican Party claims to be a staunch guardian of American defense, no major leader within the party has spoken out against the irreparable damage caused by Trump.

During the Cold War and the period that followed, the presence of the United States was the ultimate decisive factor in Europe’s security and internal stability. Under its umbrella, the peace and prosperity that paved the way for economic integration and the eventual formation of the European Union were secured. However, this history holds no value for Trump and his "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement. For reasons that seem incoherent, they harbor a deep hostility toward the European Union and appear determined to drive Europe back into an era of suicidal nationalism.

This is a dangerous and misguided objective. If successful, Washington itself will ultimately become much weaker and more isolated. But such logic carries no weight with Trump. Following the electoral defeat of his loyal ally Viktor Orbán in Hungary, Trump is likely to abandon Europeans to their own fate.

For the first time in eight decades, Europe will find itself completely alone. Europeans must now determine their own destiny and take full responsibility for their own security. This might sound like a simple proposition, unless one considers Europe’s blood-soaked history.

The departure of the United States from the European stage after World War I paved the way for the rise of Hitler and, ultimately, the backdrop for World War II. Had the greatest military and economic powers of that time remained engaged during the interwar years, Germany’s vengeful extremism might have been nipped in the bud.

The generation that lived through World War II took this very lesson from the conflict and applied it in the post-war era. President Harry S. Truman maintained a strong American presence in Europe, not only to counter the threat of Stalin’s Red Army standing in Berlin but also to alleviate European fears regarding German revanchism.

This decision by Washington created the environment necessary to build an 'ever-closer union' in Europe. It was precisely because of the U.S. presence on the continent that the reunification of Germany and the eastward expansion of NATO and the European Union became possible. Without it, the Europe we know today would never have taken shape.

So, what will a future without the United States bring for Europe? Can Europe ensure its own security and maintain unity without Washington? For Germany, a former superpower that once sought sole hegemony over the continent, the American departure poses difficult questions.

Can Germany’s current political leadership step into this new role in partnership with France and others? The rise of the far-right party 'Alternative for Germany' (AfD) proves that nothing can be taken for granted.

When it comes to the question of who will lead Europe, there is no alternative to Germany and France. As the continent's two most powerful nations, they must step forward to fill this vacuum. Europeans can no longer afford to simply wait for leadership from Washington.

It is baffling to consider whether Americans realize they are destroying one of the greatest diplomatic successes in their own history. In doing so, they are also significantly weakening the very foundation of American power and prosperity. There is no reason to believe that the US can operate entirely on its own, without strategic partners, and not pay a heavy price.

Unfortunately, the window of opportunity to change this course has closed. The long era of American guardianship has come to an end under Trump, and it will not return. Europe must now forge its own path. Whenever this ‘MAGA’ fever breaks, the relationship between the two sides of the Atlantic—and the very concept of the Western world—will have to be redefined. Amidst such uncertainty, one thing remains clear: in the new world order, Europe and the United States are far stronger together than apart.
(Author, Joschka Fischer is the Former Foreign Minister and Vice Chancellor of Germany).