Trump promised peace, now faces his own ‘forever war’

When US President Donald Trump campaigned for a second term in the White House, he promised to act as a “president of peace” who would stop foreign wars, not start them.

However, a quarter-century after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks that launched America’s global “war on terror,” he now finds himself entangled in an unpopular conflict of his own making that analysts say risks becoming his version of a “forever war”.

As the 9/11 anniversary approaches, foreign policy circles draw direct comparisons between Trump’s war against Iran and the long, divisive conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq that preceded it. These parallels prompt questions regarding whether the US has again failed to learn the lessons of past conflicts or prepare a clear exit strategy.

Sina Toossi of the Center for International Policy, a Washington think tank, said, “Trump has broken an important post-Iraq and Afghanistan constraint in Washington against launching another major, open-ended war in the Middle East,” adding that this could leave his successor inheriting an entrenched US-Iran confrontation.

Meanwhile, administration officials maintain that the military campaign against Iran is nothing like the protracted post-9/11 engagements. During the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the US removed hostile governments, committed thousands of ground troops who took and held territory, suffered and inflicted much higher casualties, and struggled to instill Western-style governance.

This time, the US relies mainly on air and naval power - operations that have damaged Iran militarily and economically without defeating it or spurring Iranians to overthrow their rulers as Trump initially urged.

After six months of war, the US is mired in a battle of attrition punctuated by exchanges of attacks on oil tankers, while Trump tries to tighten the economic noose around Tehran. Analysts warn the conflict will likely drag on well past the US midterm elections in November, when voters’ opposition to the war could threaten the Republican Party’s chances of keeping control of Congress.

Economic toll and lessons ignored

The conflict presents no obvious exit even as economic costs weigh heavily on US consumers. Tehran’s disruption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed US gasoline prices higher. The war has weakened Trump’s approval ratings and undermined Washington’s international standing, mirroring repercussions from the Iraq and Afghan wars.

White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said Trump alone had “possessed the courage” to confront Iran over its nuclear program, stating he had achieved all of his objectives while stepped-up sanctions and a US maritime blockade cripple Iran’s economy.

However, Kelly did not respond directly to Reuters’ questions on how the Iran conflict fits into America’s legacy of post-9/11 wars.

Analysts say Trump has failed to heed the central lessons of the post-9/11 era, which began after al Qaeda militants crashed planes into New York’s World Trade Center and the Pentagon outside Washington, killing nearly 3,000 people.

Those lessons include the steep political downsides of long wars and the dangers posed by an entrenched foe fighting for its survival. The attacks led to decades of conflict, starting with the invasion of Afghanistan, where al Qaeda leaders were sheltering, followed by the 2003 invasion of Iraq, based on what turned out to be faulty intelligence that it was developing weapons of mass destruction.

The twin wars undertaken by president George W Bush overstretched the US military and destabilized the Middle East. The resulting US public backlash helped fuel Trump’s rise a decade ago, and he won a second term in 2024 vowing to avoid military adventurism and focus on Americans’ economic concerns.

Strategic miscalculations and isolated warfare

Similar to how the Bush administration underestimated the insurgencies the US would face in Iraq and Afghanistan, Trump and his aides have miscalculated Iran’s resiliency and ability to throttle a fifth of the world’s energy shipments, analysts say.

Notably, critics deem “Operation Epic Fury” - launched alongside Israel on 28 February - to be a war of choice because no 9/11-type national trauma precipitated it. Experts have disputed Trump’s claims that Tehran’s nuclear program posed an imminent threat to the US.

Iran may be taking a page from Afghanistan’s Taliban - who returned to power five years ago after a chaotic US withdrawal - that a determined foe can outlast Washington’s superior firepower while domestic pressure erodes its resolve.

The Iran conflict also illustrates the cost of going to war with few allies on board. Bush secured significant international support before launching his Iraq and Afghan campaigns, though that backing waned over time.

By contrast, Trump attacked Iran with little prior consultation or explanation and has found European and Asian leaders mostly resistant to his demands for assistance. Threats to seize Greenland, questioning of NATO’s utility, reduction of weapons supplies to Ukraine, and sweeping tariffs on trade partners had already strained relations with Trump.

Regional spillover and domestic resistance

The conflict has also mirrored the Iraq invasion in terms of a regional spillover that seemed to catch Washington off-guard, in this case Tehran’s retaliation against US Gulf allies. With Iran’s neighbors quietly seeking to de-escalate a conflict they never wanted, a Gulf official lamented that the administration might be making some of the same errors of the post-9/11 wars.

“What was the (US) strategy here?” asked the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. Saudi analyst Aziz Alghashian described “a sense of limitation and helplessness in the Gulf about the wars that are taking place due to the whims of the US.”

The war’s shockwaves expanded on Thursday with Yemeni government military sources saying Iran-aligned Houthis had seized control of the Yemeni port city of Mocha and gained further leverage over an important Red Sea oil-shipping route.

While the Iraq and Afghan wars started with solid support at home before ending as unpopular conflicts, Trump’s war enjoyed no such honeymoon in public opinion. Most Americans were against it from the outset, and Trump has even drawn criticism from prominent figures associated with his “America First” movement.

Trump had initially expected to replicate his quick win from a 3 January raid that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Instead, the Iran campaign has hardened into an uneasy stalemate that has not achieved most of Trump’s shifting objectives, including shutting down its nuclear program, and has depleted the Pentagon’s missile stockpiles.

Still, Trump is not without defenders. Mark Dubowitz, head of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that takes a hard line against Iran’s rulers, denied Trump had plunged the US into an endless war and insisted he had scored successes that would eventually bring victory.

“It’s been a 47-year war waged by the Islamic Republic against America,” Dubowitz said. “And now we’ve struck back.”

Source: Reuters (adapted)