Brazil election heads to run-off as Bolsonaro wins first round

Right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro won the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, defeating left-wing President Lula da Silva. However, Flávio Bolsonaro failed to secure over 50 percent of the vote necessary to claim an outright victory.

As a result, both candidates will face each other in a run-off election scheduled for 25 October. Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the son of former right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for masterminding a failed coup attempt after losing the last election.

The presidential race remained tight throughout the campaign, with President Lula polling slightly ahead. As election officials tabulated 99 percent of the ballots, Bolsonaro secured 47.03 percent against Lula’s 45.16 percent.

Bolsonaro’s tally exceeded initial expectations, placing him in a strong position for the second round after first-round voters eliminated other right-wing alternatives. Furthermore, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) won the highest number of governors, senators, and federal deputies in initial results, positioning the party to exert maximum influence in Congress. Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, Michelle, won election to the Senate on Sunday.

Most Latin American nations have now elected right-wing presidents aligned with the Trump administration, leaving the run-off to determine whether Brazil - Latin America’s largest country and economy - will follow suit.

After casting his ballot, the 80-year-old Lula warned that voters faced a choice between democracy and “barbarism”. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro said he wanted to “free the Brazilian people”.

As the two dominant figures in Brazilian politics across the left and right, Lula and Bolsonaro polarized the country around core concerns, including sovereignty, crime, the economy, and corruption.

Lula maintains stronger popularity in Brazil’s poorer northeast region, among low-income voters, Catholics, and women. He is seeking a fourth term in office following presidential victories in 2002, 2006, and 2022. In the 2022 contest, Lula beat Jair Bolsonaro by less than 2 percent of the vote, marking the closest presidential election result in Brazilian history.

Following that election, Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters vandalized government buildings on 8 January 2023. Authorities barred Jair Bolsonaro from running for re-election even before courts sentenced him to prison, leading him to endorse his eldest son Flávio to run in his place.

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to grant amnesty to his father and the supporters responsible for the 8 January riots if elected. Flávio commands higher popularity in the south, as well as among wealthier voters and evangelical Christians.

Expressing delight on Sunday over leading Lula in the first round, Bolsonaro voiced confidence that he would win the run-off in three weeks. “I am very happy with the real possibility that, three weeks from now, Brazil will give a definitive answer by choosing a modern government,” he said, according to AFP.

Lula admitted that the outcome was “unexpected”, but insisted the contest remains open. “I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round,” Lula added on Sunday. “The game is about to start. We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people.”

Meanwhile, the president of Brazil’s supreme electoral court added on Sunday that investigators found no evidence of international interference in the election. During the campaign, Lula made “sovereignty” a core pillar, occasionally accusing the US of attempting to interfere in and influence Brazilian elections while pledging to increase defense spending.

Foreign relations and campaign scandals

Earlier this year, Flávio Bolsonaro successfully lobbied the US to designate Brazil’s two largest gangs as terrorist organizations. In July, Brazil refused visas for two US State Department officials who allegedly sought to sow doubt in Brazil’s electoral system - an accusation the US called “baseless”.

The dispute followed reports that Flávio Bolsonaro told foreign diplomats that Brazilian voting machines share the same origin as Venezuela’s, which is false. Last year, Donald Trump used the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro as justification to impose tariffs on Brazil and sanction several top officials and judges.

A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would likely see Brazil join the US “Shield of Americas” coalition against narco-trafficking and align more closely with Washington.

However, Bolsonaro pledged to maintain an “economically pragmatic” relationship with China, which overtook the US as Brazil’s largest trading partner and serves as a crucial customer for Brazilian soy and beef exports.

Corruption became a key campaign issue after a scandal involving a jailed banker, Daniel Vorcaro, who orchestrated one of Brazil’s largest financial frauds, embroiled senior figures across the political spectrum.

Flávio Bolsonaro acknowledged asking Vorcaro to bankroll a biopic about his father after voice recordings emerged in which he requested 134 million reais ($25.9m; £19.5m). Lula also faced indirect impact from the scandal after police suggested Vorcaro contacted Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes to request help avoiding arrest.

Moraes, who presided over Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial, denies any wrongdoing and was not appointed by Lula, though observers view him as an ally.

Crime policies and economic platforms

Crime and insecurity also ranked among top voter concerns. Although Brazil’s homicide rate fell, street crimes such as phone thefts increased, while violence and drug trafficking remain major problems. Flávio Bolsonaro pledged to designate Brazilian gangs as terrorist groups and build maximum-security prisons akin to those in El Salvador.

During his presidency, his father had loosened gun ownership restrictions. Lula criticized the US terrorist designation of Brazilian gangs, but launched various reforms targeting the financial networks of organized crime, improving homicide investigations, and investing in prisons.

The economy proved central to the campaign as well, amid high levels of personal debt and slowing growth. Lula defined his legacy through social welfare programs - most notably Bolsa Família, which pays families to ensure children remain in education and receive healthcare like vaccines - alongside building more universities, initiatives credited with lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty.

Lula backed increased state involvement to support investments in data centers and rare earth minerals, which Brazil possesses in abundance. He also supported oil drilling exploration near the mouth of the Amazon River, which proved controversial with environmentalists despite his record of tightening environmental protections and reducing Amazon deforestation rates, which had increased significantly under Jair Bolsonaro.

On the other hand, Flávio Bolsonaro pledged a public debt ceiling, government spending cuts, a revision of social welfare, and support for the critical minerals sector.

Source: BBC (adapted)