Tamil Nadu: Vijay Faces Tough Test Over Government Formation
Vijay Thalapathy. File photo.
Despite massive public support, South Indian superstar Thalapathy Vijay is facing a challenging ordeal to become the next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu.
He visited the Governor for the second time today (Thursday) to stake his claim to form the government. Yesterday, Vijay met the Governor expressing his intent to form the administration, but the Governor turned him back. This was because he presented the support of 112 MLAs, whereas at least 118 are required for government formation. Consequently, the Governor asked Vijay to return with the support of 118 MLAs.
In the 234-seat Tamil Nadu Assembly, Vijay's party, TVK, secured 108 seats. He requires the support of 10 more MLAs to form a government. The Congress party has already announced its support for TVK, but they hold only 5 seats. Therefore, 5 more MLAs are needed for Vijay. Furthermore, he won from two separate seats and must vacate one, meaning he actually needs the support of at least 6 additional MLAs. There is significant uncertainty regarding who these six legislators will be.
Cracks have already appeared within the AIADMK, which holds the third-highest number of seats. Several of their MLAs have publicly expressed support for TVK. However, Congress has set a condition: TVK must not align with the NDA or any of its partner parties.
Speculation suggested that Vijay might take his oath tomorrow, May 8. However, given the current situation, he will be unable to form the government unless he secures adequate support.
Half of the deficit for Vijay’s government formation will be covered by Congress, which offered conditional support. The condition is that TVK must maintain no ties with "communal forces" (referring to the Bharatiya Janata Party or BJP).
The remaining seats are likely to be filled by including the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India (Marxist)—who hold four seats each—along with smaller Tamil parties like Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (2 seats) and Pattali Makkal Katchi (4 seats). It is reported that Vijay is keen on forming an alliance with these smaller parties as it would make the working relationship easier.
This coalition of TVK + Congress + Left + VCK + PMK would give Vijay 123 seats, which would drop to 122 once the actor resigns from his Trichy (East) seat. Vijay had contested and won from two constituencies.
However, doubts remain. The outgoing Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is considered Vijay’s "political enemy," while the PMK is currently allied with his "ideological enemy," the BJP.
For VCK and PMK to join Vijay, both would have to break their current alliances, but this appears to be the most viable path for TVK to form the next government and for the actor to become Chief Minister.
Another alternative, considered much less likely, is an alliance between TVK and the AIADMK—a party belonging to the Dravidian fold that has dominated Tamil Nadu politics for the past 62 years. Rumors of a split within the AIADMK regarding the "Vijay question" continue to circulate.
During the election campaign, Vijay's party, TVK, launched fierce attacks on both the DMK and the BJP. This strategy paid off significantly. However, neither Vijay nor TVK directly targeted the AIADMK.
This soft policy is likely why various factions within the AIADMK are now prepared to form an alliance with Vijay.
Reports this morning indicate that more than a dozen AIADMK MLAs are ready to join the coalition and have checked into a resort in Puducherry to push the matter forward. This number is more than enough to provide TVK with the necessary majority.
However, two AIADMK leaders told NDTV that no alliance will take place and any talk of a deal is false. C.V. Shanmugam and K.P. Munusamy stated that these rumors spread because the party's message was not clear enough.
On the other hand, it is reported that Vijay is reluctant to form an alliance with the AIADMK due to their ties with the BJP.
In the worst-case scenario, if TVK fails to form a strong enough coalition, the Governor may suspend the newly elected Assembly and recommend the imposition of President's Rule to the Center, which would lead to fresh elections.
Amidst these developments, Vijay's 107 newly elected MLAs have been sequestered at a resort in the temple town of Mamallapuram, located about 50 kilometers from the capital, Chennai. Although TVK is new to this game, Vijay clearly understands the rules.