Why the United States introduced midterm elections
Photo: Reuters
Midterm elections are a crucial democratic process in the political system of the United States. Although presidential elections are held every four years, midterm elections take place exactly two years after a president is elected.
Through these elections, voters not only choose members of Congress but also assess the president’s first two years in office, policies, popularity and political activities. As a result, midterm elections often become a test of presidential popularity and a major opportunity for the opposition to shift the balance of power in American politics.
The roots of the concept of midterm elections date back to the drafting of the US Constitution. In 1787, constitutional framers in Philadelphia sought to establish a system of government in which all state power would not be concentrated in the hands of a single individual or institution.
To achieve this goal, they separated the executive, legislative and judicial branches and established a system of checks and balances and accountability among them. The terms of members of the two chambers of Congress were also set differently. Members of the House of Representatives were given two-year terms, while senators were given six-year terms.
Meanwhile, the president’s term was set at four years. This difference in terms established the constitutional basis for holding congressional elections midway through a presidential term. The first midterm election was held in 1792, halfway through George Washington’s first presidential term.
All members of the House of Representatives face elections every two years. The objective was to keep elected representatives closely connected to public opinion and people’s demands. The Senate, on the other hand, was designed to be a comparatively stable institution based on experience. Therefore, senators were given six-year terms and divided into three classes.
As a result, elections are held for approximately one-third of Senate seats every two years. This prevents the entire Senate from changing at once and ensures continuity in lawmaking. Initially, senators were not directly elected by the people. They were chosen by state legislatures. The system of direct popular elections for senators was established after the 17th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified in 1913.
Midterm elections are not meant to directly remove a president from office. Instead, voters can influence the president’s political and legislative powers by changing control of Congress.
If the president’s party loses its majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the president must negotiate with the opposition to pass budgets, enact legislation, secure approval for appointments and implement various policy decisions. Thus, midterm elections serve as an effective political instrument for maintaining the balance of power in the United States.
However, the most widely discussed feature of midterm elections is that the incumbent president’s party usually loses seats in Congress. Between 1946 and 2022, following World War II, the president’s party lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 of the 20 midterm elections.
In other words, the ruling party lost seats in 90 percent of those elections. During this period, the president’s party lost an average of 26 seats in the House of Representatives and four seats in the Senate. These statistics clearly show that midterm elections are generally a difficult political test for the party in power.
Several factors contribute to this trend. First, voters view midterm elections as an opportunity to evaluate the president’s two years in office. The economy, prices, employment, foreign policy, wars, immigration and the government’s popularity all influence election results. Second, supporters of the ruling party sometimes become complacent, while opposition supporters are often more motivated to vote because of their dissatisfaction with the government.
Third, some voters may become disappointed with their decision within two years of a presidential election victory. In addition, members of Congress who were elected on the strength of a president’s popularity may lose that advantage in the next election.
Historical statistics show few exceptions to this trend. In 1894, President Grover Cleveland’s Democratic Party lost 125 seats in the House of Representatives, the largest seat loss in midterm election history. In 1874, Ulysses Grant’s Republican Party lost 96 seats. In 1890, Benjamin Harrison’s party lost 93 seats.
There have also been major setbacks in modern times. In 2010, Barack Obama’s Democratic Party lost 63 seats in the House of Representatives. Bill Clinton’s party lost 54 seats in 1994, while George W. Bush’s Republican Party lost 30 seats in 2006.
However, the president’s party does not always lose. In 1934, during the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt’s popular New Deal programs helped his Democratic Party gain nine seats each in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In 1998, amid political controversy surrounding Bill Clinton’s impeachment, his party gained four seats in the House of Representatives.
Following the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2002, national unity and public support for the president helped George W. Bush’s Republican Party gain eight seats in the House of Representatives and two in the Senate. These events demonstrate that national crises, economic conditions, presidential popularity and the opposition’s political strategy play important roles in determining midterm election outcomes.
An important point is that election results in the House of Representatives and the Senate do not always move in the same direction. Since all 435 seats in the House are contested, changes in national public opinion are reflected relatively quickly. However, elections are generally held for 33 or 34 Senate seats every two years. The results depend largely on which states are holding elections, their political realities and the popularity of candidates.
In 2018, Donald Trump’s Republican Party lost 41 seats in the House of Representatives but gained two seats in the Senate. Similarly, in 2022, Joe Biden’s Democratic Party lost nine seats in the House but gained one seat in the Senate. Therefore, the overall political situation cannot be assessed based on the results of only one chamber.
The 2022 election was one of the notable exceptions in recent times. In that election, President Biden’s Democratic Party lost only nine seats in the House of Representatives, marking the smallest seat loss for an incumbent president’s party in the previous 20 years.
Meanwhile, Trump’s party lost 41 seats in the House in 2018 but managed to increase its representation in the Senate. These figures show that local electoral dynamics are just as important as the national political environment in midterm elections.
Another midterm election is scheduled to be held in the United States on November 3, 2026. According to figures as of October 31, Republicans held 218 seats in the House of Representatives, while Democrats held 214. One seat was held by an independent and two seats were vacant. Republicans held a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate. A total of 35 Senate seats are scheduled to be contested in the election.
Therefore, retaining a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate is a significant political test for Republicans. However, it is too early to draw conclusions about the election results. Voter sentiment, economic conditions and election campaigns will ultimately determine the outcome.
Overall, midterm elections in the United States are not merely routine polls. They are an important mechanism of accountability within the country’s democratic framework. Midterm elections represent the practical application of the principles of checks and balances, public representation and accountability that the constitutional framers sought to establish.
Historical statistics show that winning a presidential election is difficult, but retaining the same political strength in Congress two years later can often be even more challenging. This is why midterm elections in American politics are widely regarded as a test of presidential popularity and a crucial turning point in determining the country’s subsequent political direction.
