China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion as AI exports surge
Photo: CHINA DAILY / VIA REUTERS
China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026 as booming global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boosted exports of high-tech products, helping offset weak domestic consumption.
The surplus reached $1.04 trillion, crossing the $1 trillion threshold for the second consecutive year and reaching the milestone a month earlier than in 2025, customs data showed on Tuesday.
Exports surged 35.2% in October year on year in US dollar terms, slightly below September’s 36.3% growth but well above economists’ forecast of 33.5%. Imports also rose 41.6%, exceeding the 32% increase predicted in a Reuters poll.
China’s semiconductor exports jumped 111.1% in the first 10 months compared with the same period last year, while overall shipments of high-tech products increased 47.9%, reflecting strong demand linked to the global AI investment boom.
However, the growing trade surplus could intensify tensions with major trading partners, particularly the European Union and the United States. European leaders have called for additional trade restrictions on Chinese goods following an agreement to limit Chinese hybrid vehicle exports to the bloc.
Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China, warned that the risk of additional tariffs and trade barriers would remain high in 2027 as Chinese manufacturers expand their overseas presence.
Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $32.71 billion in October from $34.01 billion in September.
Beijing and Washington formally extended their trade truce by two months on Monday. The agreement had been scheduled to expire on Tuesday.
Despite strong export performance, weak domestic consumption remains a concern. A prolonged property market downturn has affected household wealth and consumer confidence.
Analysts expect AI-related demand to support exports in the coming months, although overall trade growth could moderate next year.
“We may see trade growth moderate next year, given the base effect,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING.
“But AI-related trade is expected to remain strong in the months ahead despite recent equity market volatility.”
Source: Reuters (Adapted)
