Will Trump’s new economic sanctions against Iran work?
US President Donald Trump. Photo: Collected
More than six months after US President Donald Trump promised a swift victory against Iran, the war remains effectively deadlocked. The prospects of either a military victory or a negotiated settlement are also growing increasingly slim.
To break the deadlock, Trump has threatened to launch an “economic D Day” to isolate Iran. Under the plan, he warned that any country doing business with Iran would face “terrible” economic consequences.
However, Iran has been under US sanctions for decades. As the war has dragged on, the country has not only endured economic and military pressure but has also shown an ability to adapt and cope with it.
Against this backdrop, a major question for the United States is whether imposing new sanctions will produce the desired results when previous strategies have failed. Analysts say the Trump administration has adopted this new strategy after failing to achieve the expected results in the war.
The specific structure of the new US measures is still unclear. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would provide details at a news conference on August 24.
In an interview with CNBC, Bessent made clear that the United States is prepared to take action against any country, friend or foe, if it believes that country is helping Iran.
He said, “You are either with us or against us. If you want to continue doing business with Iran, buy their oil or exchange goods by sea, the United States will use its full power to take action against you.”
US Vice President JD Vance described the sanctions as a “new phase” of the conflict. In his view, economic pressure is now the “most effective” tool available to the United States.
At an event, he said Iran was trying to impose economic pressure on the United States. However, over the past few weeks, Iran has felt greater pressure than the United States.
Vance said, “We will continue this pressure because this is the most effective way to achieve the ultimate goal.”
Iran has been under US sanctions since almost the beginning of the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. During his first term, President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 agreement with Iran to limit its nuclear program. Since then, economic pressure on Iran has increased further.
During the ongoing war, the United States has already announced “Operation Economic Fury.” Under the operation, sanctions are being imposed on Iran’s government financial transactions in coordination with the US Treasury Department. A naval blockade targeting Iranian ports is also being conducted.
Imran Bayoumi, a geopolitical expert at the Atlantic Council in Washington and a former policy adviser to the US Department of Defense, said Trump’s new announcement likely reflects growing frustration because other strategies have failed to produce the desired results.
In his words, “This is essentially an acknowledgment that the United States is almost stuck in this war. It is another attempt to apply economic pressure.”
According to him, the administration has yet to present a clear strategy outlining what it wants to achieve through either military or economic tools. As a result, the question of what the United States actually wants to achieve remains unanswered.
Michael Parker, a US economic sanctions expert and former official at the country’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, said the new measure could be aimed at expanding the “economic reach” of the sanctions.
Countries that still do business with Iran could be targeted under the measure. This could particularly include countries whose economies depend on the US dollar.
According to him, the United States is preparing to use a tool that it has not yet fully utilized. As an example, he cited foreign financial institutions that help Iran evade sanctions or transfer money to Iran’s treasury.
It remains unclear how Iran will respond to the new US measures. However, experts say Iran has so far demonstrated considerable skill in evading sanctions.
The country has developed various informal channels, including using “shadow” vessels to transport oil and using new commercial entities that are not on the US sanctions list.
