Did the Split in Muslim Votes Lead to Mamata’s Defeat?
From Today, Bengal is Free of Fear: Narendra Modi
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Photo: Collected.
'Today is a special day—a day for the country’s (India) bright future. A day of trust. A day of faith in India's great democracy and politics. Today is a day of India's excellence. I congratulate the people of Bengal, Assam, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala. I also congratulate the millions of BJP supporters', this how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi applauded the constituents of some provinces and the nation as a whole.
His remarks came at a rally organized at the BJP headquarters in New Delhi following the announcement of assembly election results in four Indian states and the union territory of Puducherry.
Modi said, "Victory and defeat are natural in a democracy. This is a victory for democracy and a victory for the Constitution. Change has already occurred in Bengal. From today, Bengal is free of fear. Following the BJP's victory in West Bengal, the soul of Syama Prasad Mookerjee has found peace."
He also described the nearly 93% voter turnout in West Bengal as historic.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah was already present at the gathering. The BJP National President, Nitin Nabin, thanked the voters of the four states and Puducherry for voting for the party.
As soon as Modi reached the stage, BJP workers and supporters began chanting slogans. He appeared on stage dressed in a traditional dhoti and panjabi.
Did the Split in Muslim Votes Lead to Mamata’s Impending Defeat?
The shifting of the Muslim vote away from the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is being cited as a primary reason for the party's defeat. Suvendu Adhikari, a BJP leader and potential Chief Minister of West Bengal, believes that this fragmentation, combined with religious polarization, paved the way for the BJP's success. Adhikari stated that while the TMC failed to secure a unified Muslim vote, the BJP succeeded in consolidating Hindu voters.
May 4, 2026, is set to be a landmark day in West Bengal’s political history. Preliminary results suggest the end of a 15-year TMC tenure as the BJP heads toward an unprecedented victory. According to the latest Election Commission data:
The BJP is leading in 181 seats and the TMC is stalled at just 92 seats.
The BJP is projected to receive over 46% of the total vote, an increase of nearly 8% from previous figures.
Factors Contributing to the Shift
The BJP saw an almost unilateral swing of Hindu votes in North Bengal, Jungle Mahal, and Matua-dominated regions. Issues such as the unrest in Sandeshkhali and the implementation of the CAA established the BJP as the primary choice for voters concerned with security. Additionally, a significant portion of Left-leaning voters opted for the BJP to ensure the ouster of the TMC.
Cracks in the TMC Stronghold
The minority vote, previously the TMC’s greatest strength, showed significant fractures this election. Key reasons for this discontent among Muslim voters include:
Legal Delays: Frustration over the state government's legal handling following the Calcutta High Court's ruling on OBC reservations.
Employment Impact: The cancellation of Muslim OBC certificates led to thousands of youths losing job opportunities, sparking widespread anger against the ruling party.
The allegations regarding the management of Waqf properties are also not unfounded. There has been long-standing resentment among ordinary Muslims over the misappropriation of vast amounts of Waqf land and the lack of its proper utilization. Furthermore, the ISF, led by Naushad Siddiqui, along with the Left-Congress alliance, has captured nearly 20% to 25% of the Muslim vote in districts like Malda, Murshidabad, and North Dinajpur. This division of votes directly paved the way for the BJP's victory while pushing the Trinamool Congress behind. Consequently, the BJP achieved unprecedented results even in Muslim-dominated areas.
Another major reason for the growing discontent within the minority community is the repressive policies of the Trinamool government. Over the past few years, police action and arrests have been carried out against many who spoke out for minority rights or attempted to create a separate political identity. This situation sent a message to a section of Muslim voters that the government views them only as a vote bank, not as partners. As a result, moving away from a culture of fear, they sought an alternative at the ballot box this time.
The most controversial and decisive issue of this election was the removal of a massive number of names from the voter list. According to statistics, approximately 9.1 million names were cut across the state through a "Special Intensive Revision" (SIR) before the election, accounting for nearly 12% of the total voters.
According to Trinamool's allegations, the highest number of removals occurred in minority and poverty-stricken districts such as North 24 Parganas (1.26 million), South 24 Parganas (1.091 million), and Murshidabad (748,000). In many constituencies, it is observed that the margin of defeat is even smaller than the number of excluded voters. Consequently, this administrative process has completely disrupted Trinamool’s voting calculations.