Deforestation in The Amazon Falls to a Record Low: Will Lula benefit?

Deforestation in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest has fallen to its lowest level since records began in 1988, according to official government statistics.
The achievement comes just days before the second round of Brazil’s presidential election, creating a favourable situation for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
On Friday, Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reported that 3,335 square kilometres (1,288 square miles) of forest had been cleared in the 12 months through July. This represents a decline of nearly 42 percent compared with the previous year.
According to data from INPE’s satellite monitoring programme, PRODES, the previous lowest level of deforestation was recorded in 2011–12, when 4,571 square kilometres (1,765 square miles) of forest were cleared. In the mid-1990s, annual forest loss had reached around 30,000 square kilometres (approximately 11,600 square miles). Records of deforestation in the Amazon began in 1988.
Speaking at a press conference, Brazil’s Environment Minister João Paulo Capobianco described the decline as extraordinary. “This is an incredibly sharp drop. It feels like a dream,” he said.
Marcio Astrini of the climate advocacy group Observatório do Clima described the figures as a “historic achievement.” He said, “With political will, it is possible to control deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions.”
President Lula wrote on the social media platform X, “Our goal is to bring illegal deforestation down to zero by 2030.”
When Lula took office in 2023, he pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2030. Before his presidency, deforestation had reached its highest level in 15 years under the administration of far-right President Jair Bolsonaro. During Bolsonaro’s four-year tenure from 2019 to 2022, the Amazon lost an average of around 11,600 square kilometres (approximately 4,480 square miles) of forest annually. This was about 60 percent higher than the average recorded during the preceding four years.
Deforestation has declined every year since 2022, falling by 71.2 percent over four years. The Agence France-Presse (AFP) news agency attributed the reduction to increased monitoring and tougher penalties for illegal logging.
Lula’s opponent in the second round of the October 25 election is Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and the eldest son of Jair Bolsonaro. Opinion polls show the two candidates running neck and neck.
Deforestation has also fallen by nearly 24 percent in the Cerrado savanna region south of the Amazon, dropping to 5,517 square kilometres (2,130 square miles). This is the lowest level since records began in 2001.