EU fuel prices hit records as ECB experts see diesel margins peak in October

EU petrol and diesel prices hit record highs this week, according to the European Commission. Refining margins—the cost of turning crude oil into fuel—are partly to blame, and prices could remain elevated as ECB experts tell Euronews that diesel margins are expected to peak only in October.

Filling up a car has never cost more on average across the European Union, according to European Commission data going back more than two decades. At the latest average prices, it costs about €103 to fill a 50-litre tank with petrol and €108 with diesel.

Retail fuel prices have surged since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, adding to inflationary pressures. Eurozone energy inflation rose to 14.3% in August, up from 10.3% in July, according to the European Central Bank.

A litre of petrol cost a weighted EU average of €2.063 as of 14 September, while diesel reached €2.159 per litre. Both were the highest readings in the Commission’s series, which begins in 2005. Petrol’s previous peak was recorded in 2022, while diesel last approached its current level in April this year.

Prices varied considerably across the EU. Petrol was cheapest in Malta, at €1.34 per litre, and most expensive in Denmark, at €2.56. Diesel ranged from €1.21 per litre in Malta to €2.51 in Finland.

The figures come from the European Commission’s latest Weekly Oil Bulletin, published on 17 September using prices reported for 14 September. They include taxes.
Fuel prices have been rising for months since the war with Iran broke out at the end of February and disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. International benchmark Brent crude prices rose above $126 at the height of the conflict and were trading at more than $104 a barrel for delivery the following month on Friday. Brent cost about $72 per barrel before the war broke out.
European crude supplies face further disruption after Saudi Aramco told at least two European refiners that they would receive no oil under long-term contracts in October following an attack on the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea, Bloomberg reported, citing people informed of the decision who said it applied to all European buyers.

What makes European fuel prices expensive?

But international crude prices are not the only factor driving petrol and diesel prices higher. Refining costs and margins have also risen significantly, putting further pressure on prices at the pump.

Refining margins reflect the difference between the cost of crude oil and the price of refined products such as petrol and diesel. While petrol margins appear to have peaked, ECB experts told Euronews Business that diesel margins are not expected to reach their highest point until October.

“Looking ahead, based on refined diesel futures from LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group) on 16 September, the margin for diesel is expected to peak in October. Based on refined petrol futures from LSEG on 16 September, petrol margins peaked in August,” they said.

Since the beginning of 2026, the weighted EU average petrol price has risen by about 29%, while diesel has surged by almost 40%.
Higher crude prices have also fuelled energy inflation across both the eurozone and the wider EU. According to an ECB blog published in July, increases in crude-oil prices generally feed through fully to pre-tax pump prices within one or two months. Governments can temporarily cushion the impact through measures such as cuts to fuel duties.
Crude oil accounted for less than a quarter of the euro-area pump price in the ECB blog’s July calculations. The remainder included refining and distribution costs and margins, excise duties and value added tax, helping to explain the significant differences between countries.
The blog’s calculations indicated that excise duties and VAT together represented around 44% of the euro-area diesel price and 52% of the petrol price in July.

ECB experts told Euronews Business that refining margins are now making a large contribution to diesel prices.

“At the current juncture, we have estimated that in the third week of September refining margins have contributed €0.41 (19% of the pump price) and €0.17 (8%) per litre to the retail diesel and retail petrol prices in the euro area, respectively.”
Could fuel prices rise further?

The ECB’s monetary policy statement, published on 10 September, warned: “Renewed disruption of energy supplies could cause energy prices to rise further and for longer than currently expected.”

ECB experts said an end to the Middle East conflict and the restoration of energy and refining flows would be central to bringing prices down.

“For petrol and diesel prices to decline, the key factor would be a cessation of the war in the Middle East, a normalisation of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and a restoration of global refining activity to allow oil inventories to rebuild,” they said.

Such a normalisation could quickly lower crude oil and retail fuel prices. However, disruptions to Russian refining capacity could keep margins elevated even if the Middle East conflict were resolved.

Source: euronews.com