Will Dhaka-New York flights take off with 25 Boeing aircraft?
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Two decades ago, the direct Dhaka-New York flight was discontinued, citing losses. Since then, multiple initiatives to launch the route have been taken, but none materialized. This time, after a deal with Boeing to purchase 25 aircraft, the New York route has come into discussion anew. Alongside the aircraft sale, Boeing—one of the largest US companies in the aviation and aerospace technology sector—has assured contact and cooperation with the relevant US authorities regarding the launch of Dhaka-New York flights.
Officials from the Ministry of Civil Aviation and Tourism and Biman Bangladesh Airlines have provided this information. However, a similar assurance was given in 2008 when 10 Boeing aircraft were purchased. In the end, the flight was not launched.
Although policymakers in this sector favor bringing aircraft on lease and sending flights to New York starting next year, the assessment of the supervisory body, the Civil Aviation Authority of Bangladesh (CAAB), suggests that it is unlikely to launch before 2028. As a result, uncertainty over the New York route persists even amid the initiative to purchase new aircraft.
A large presence of Bangladeshi expatriates in the United States is concentrated in a few states. According to an analysis of the country's Community Survey, 270,000 Bangladeshis live there. The largest portion resides in New York. Direct flights are important for their travel, business and trade, education, and family connections. Moreover, the United States is Bangladesh's largest export destination. The picture of the trade deficit between the two countries is even more complicated. The US buys about $8 billion worth of goods from Bangladesh, while Bangladesh buys only $2 billion, resulting in a deficit of $6 billion or more. Bangladesh government is being forced to take various initiatives to bridge that deficit. It is importing cotton and wheat from the US. Despite lacking practical capacity, 25 aircraft are being purchased. Various other needs will be met with US products. For this reason, direct air connectivity will also be necessary for businessmen of both countries in the days ahead.
At one time, Biman operated flights on the Dhaka-New York route using DC-10 aircraft. However, due to the aircraft's fuel capacity limitations, it had to make a stopover in Hungary or other places. In 2006, the route was discontinued, citing losses. According to Biman's information, before closure, 11,455 passengers were carried on 79 flights on this route in the 2005-06 fiscal year.
In 2008, Mahbub Jamil, Special Assistant to the Chief Advisor to the caretaker government and Chairman of the Biman Board of Directors, flew to the United States to finalize a deal with Boeing to purchase 10 aircraft. He also held meetings at various levels of the then-US government regarding resuming Dhaka-New York flights; but even after that initiative, the New York flight was not launched. Subsequently, in 2013, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Bangladesh and the United States regarding resuming flights. After a long hiatus, Biman took the initiative again in 2023. The airline applied to the US Department of Transportation for permission to operate flights. The plan was to operate five flights per week. However, in Biman's proposal, potential weekly revenue was estimated at $2,117,235, against operating costs of $3,141,024. That is, the potential weekly loss was $1,023,789. Officials have said that this time too, during the new deal with Boeing, assurance of cooperation regarding launching flights to New York and several other US destinations was received.
On June 21, CAAB Chairman Air Vice Marshal Mostafa Mahmud Siddique said that due to the necessary assessment and audit not being completed, the possibility of launching the flight before 2028 is low. On the other hand, on September 16, Minister of Civil Aviation and Tourism M Rashed Khan Menon said the government is working on launching the flight next year. For this, achieving FAA Category-1 status is important.
The Major Obstacle to Launching Flights to New York: The US Federal Aviation Administration's Safety Assessment
The major obstacle to launching flights to New York is the safety assessment by the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Bangladesh's Civil Aviation Authority must demonstrate its safety oversight capability in accordance with international standards. In this regard, the audit by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is also important. On October 26, ICAO began its aviation safety audit in Bangladesh. The audit is scheduled to continue until November 6. However, achieving FAA Category-1 status is not guaranteed merely upon completion of the ICAO audit. The relevant US assessment and approval process must also be completed.
Obtaining 'Category-1' in this assessment will open the path for Bangladeshi airlines to operate flights to the United States with their own aircraft and crew. This recognition alone will not be enough to launch flights; alongside it, economic approval from the US Department of Transportation (DOT) and operational safety approval from the FAA are also required. Another important point for this report is that completion of the ICAO safety audit and obtaining FAA Category-1 are not the same thing. If deficiencies are identified in the ICAO audit, they must be corrected; after that, the FAA's own assessment and approval process will begin. The government is monitoring the entire matter. The government also wants the path to be opened for using the aircraft after the deal to purchase so many planes.
Aviation analyst Wing Commander ATM Nazrul Islam (retd.) told Agamir Somoy that it is not possible to specify a timeline for launching Dhaka-New York flights until FAA clearance is obtained. To operate flights to the United States, an application must be made to the relevant authorities. After that, the FAA will review the application and conduct audits to set the necessary conditions. Only when those conditions are met will the opportunity to operate flights be created.
ATM Nazrul said that if a new application is made without resolving the problems identified earlier, the likelihood of receiving a positive response is low. In this regard, discussions between the two governments and the civil aviation authorities are also important.
On April 30, Biman signed a deal with Boeing to procure 14 aircraft. Then on September 23, Biman signed a supplementary agreement with Boeing to purchase 11 more aircraft. The supply of these aircraft is scheduled to begin in November 2031. Airbus has also appeared in the race to capture Dhaka's skies. They too have offered 10 aircraft.
After multiple initiatives and assurances over two decades, the direct Dhaka-New York flight has not been launched. This time, along with the deal to purchase 25 Boeing aircraft, new assurances of cooperation have been received. But will the New York flight remain stuck in promises this time too, as in the past?
