Bangladesh data credibility questioned again

The story dates back to the ousted Awami League government’s tenure. At that time, the World Bank (WB) published a report, one-third of which focused on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth.

In the report, the WB said growth was increasing in Bangladesh, but the calculations did not match other factors. In other words, those indicators that should improve to drive growth in the GDP had failed to show improvement. How then was growth rising so high?

After the media published news regarding this matter, the then planning minister AHM Mustafa Kamal grew furious. Those associated with the Bangladesh mission at the time faced his wrath.

The minister summoned the WB Country Director Qimiao Fan and vented his anger for an hour and a half. Pressure was even exerted to retire or transfer Zahid Hussain, the former WB lead economist involved in preparing the report.

The present situation is no longer like that. However, the question remains: how much has the credibility of data actually increased? Amid this situation, World Statistics Day has arrived once again on Tuesday, although authorities will officially celebrate the day after the public holidays.

Political interference and concerns over data credibility

Zahid told Agamir Somoy, “Although nobody told me officially, I heard from other sources that the then planning minister asked to put me on retirement. Or he talked about transferring me to another country. However, nothing happened in the end.

“The government has an opportunity to learn lessons from the Awami League era. From 2009 to 2015, authorities did not manipulate statistics very much. But interference began in 2015. Nothing of that sort has happened yet during this government’s tenure. But one cannot say with certainty that it will not happen in the future. Some people, in an effort to flatter excessively, might suggest that interfering with statistics is necessary.”

He added, “However, the government must maintain its stance. For this, authorities must create a distance between politics and the BBS. They must grant autonomy or independence to the BBS. Because if data is inaccurate, it is only natural for government policy-making to turn out flawed.”

Trust in official government data remains low in the country. The collected statistics do not match reality closely. As a result, critics repeatedly question the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). As the government’s sole data collection agency, the government formulates policy based on the data they produce.

Although initiatives existed during the interim government’s tenure, authorities missed a major opportunity to reform the statistics bureau due to neglect and unknown reasons. The BNP-led current government has taken initiatives to formulate a policy framework to ensure the free flow of information.

Secretary of the Statistics and Informatics Division Md Firoz Sarkar told Agamir Somoy that authorities are gathering stakeholders’ feedback on the draft of this policy framework. Once enacted, it will ensure unfettered access to information. In addition, authorities are conducting re-basing in selecting products for gathering inflation data, while also performing a forensic audit.

He added that once completed, it will become clear how and in which data officials interfered. Enumerators can no longer evade duties because authorities now conduct all surveys and censuses using tablets. From a “NOC Room” established at the BBS headquarters, officials monitor the location and activities of field-level enumerators. As a result, questions regarding data will decrease significantly.

During the Awami League government, critics questioned many social indicators, including GDP growth, per capita income, inflation, life expectancy, unemployment rate, demographic picture, poverty rate, and crop production figures. Analysts repeatedly challenged the data and figures. Even a survey conducted by the agency itself revealed a picture of distrust.

During the interim government’s regime, bureau officials themselves complained to the White Paper Drafting Committee that they were helpless in providing accurate data due to political pressure. Authorities took a major initiative at that time to clear the bad reputation.

They formed a committee headed by Hossain Zillur Rahman, executive chairman of the Power and Participation Research Centre (PPRC). Although that committee offered various reform recommendations, officials buried those proposals.

Earlier, the final report of a survey conducted by the BBS itself showed that a large portion of BBS data users do not consider the statistics credible.

Unimplemented recommendations and failed reform attempts

The task force formed during the interim government submitted various recommendations, including renaming the BBS to “Statistics Bangladesh” (STAT) and changing the agency head’s designation (Director General) to “Chief Statistician”.

The proposal outlined forming a seven-member council. This council would ensure transparency and accountability in statistics. Along with overseeing expenditure audits, it would handle the recruitment of cadre officers, including the Chief Statistician. The planning minister would lead this council.

The report submitted by the task force said authorities would amend the Statistics Act, 2013 to stop data discrepancies and political interference in publishing any information.

The recommendations added that to eliminate longstanding recruitment abuses and all weaknesses, authorities must expand the organizational structure into 16 branches and create 437 new upazila-level positions. The report contained many other such recommendations, but authorities failed to implement them.

New data access policies and 15 systemic challenges

Until now, much official government data remained beyond the reach of the general public. Various restrictions applied to big data and microdata. Users had to pay large sums of money to acquire data sets.

Authorities have now taken initiatives to reduce such harassment in obtaining information. They are formulating the “Data and Microdata Dissemination and Access Policy 2026.” Authorities are gathering opinions on its draft.

The country’s statistical system faces 15 major challenges, including a lack of reliability in official government data.

Identified in the Five-Year Strategic Framework prepared by the General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission, the notable challenges include ambiguity in legal mandates and institutional authority, problems with professional independence and governance, a funding crisis in core survey activities, report publication schedules and timeliness, and developing and coordinating a quality assurance system.

Moreover, the challenges involve obtaining quality administrative data for GDP and statistics, establishing an integrated register and framework, addressing the lack of digital data infrastructure, and expanding field-level activities and scope.