AL pins December hopes on Hasina’s return

The return of ousted prime minister Sheikh Hasina to the country is nearly impossible.

However, fresh political heat has spread around Hasina’s announcement to return to the country in December. Centering on this announcement, the activity-banned Awami League (AL) is moving forward with multifaceted plans in the month of victory.

Party leaders and activists view their party chief’s return to the country as a “question of dignity” rather than political rehabilitation. At the same time, the party’s policymakers want to capitalize on this issue to keep workers organizationally energized, demonstrate their existence and strength inside the country, and draw the attention of the international community.  

Various sources within the AL say December is being considered an important political period for the party. Centering on several historic days, including Victory Day on 16 December, various programs are planned at home and abroad.

As part of this, initiatives are being taken to conduct online campaigns, virtual meetings, snap marches, rallies, and to organize expatriate leaders and activists. Alongside this, there will also be efforts to build diplomatic pressure by highlighting the situation of Bangladesh to international human rights organizations and influential countries.

The party’s goal is to make its presence felt in political and international spheres by keeping the issue of Hasina’s return to the country at the forefront.

Recently, an application for issuing a new passport and NID for Hasina was submitted through a British law firm at the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi. Exiled leaders of the AL are promoting this as proof of their leader’s firm resolve to return home.

However, political and legal analysts believe that her path to return is extremely difficult due to a combination of factors: her revoked passport and National Identity Card (NID), the death penalty sentence issued by the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT), and existing diplomatic complexities between India and Bangladesh.

As a result, her return announcement may primarily be a strategy to instill hope among leaders and activists who have been scattered for a long time and to keep party organizational activities functional.

Bangladesh government rejected the demand to issue the passport and NID, emphasizing bringing Hasina back to the country under the extradition treaty. On the other hand, the Indian government has also clarified its position regarding Hasina living in India.  

Saying the matter of her extradition will be resolved legally, Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for India’s Ministry of External Affairs, said in a regular briefing on Tuesday, “The extradition of Hasina is a matter of law and the judiciary. Further action will be taken on this issue in accordance with the law.”

Regarding travel documents, he added, “A person requires valid travel documents to travel. The specific technical aspects regarding this will be examined and communicated later.”

Several sources within the AL noted that bringing the issue of the passport and NID to the forefront is part of a multifaceted strategy surrounding December. According to party leaders, this application has played out in their political favor, as it serves as proof that Hasina wants to return to the country.

At the same time, efforts are being made to highlight in international arenas that the government refused to issue the passport and NID precisely because it fears her return.

Three central leaders of the AL living abroad said even if Hasina is unable to return home in the end, party policymakers view December as a time of political turning point. As the majority of top central leaders are in prison, in hiding, or abroad, modern technology is being used as the primary tool for organizational communication.

Hasina has already held online meetings with leaders and activists from over 100 of the country’s 300 parliamentary constituencies. Plans are in place to increase this virtual communication in December to keep workers active through direct instructions.

One leader added that since familiar faces are under surveillance by law enforcement agencies, efforts are underway to create an alternative leadership combining relatively unfamiliar and young workers to keep the field-level organizational structure functioning.

Centering on historic days including Victory Day, associate organizations of the party plan to carry out snap marches, blockades, and online campaigns in various places across the country, including Dhaka.

Intelligence officials also fear sabotage surrounding these programs. Recently, incidents of sabotage occurred in various parts of the country centered on blockade programs by the banned Chhatra League. Holding leaders and activists of the AL and its associate organizations responsible for these incidents, law enforcement agencies have arrested several individuals.

Another crucial part of the party’s strategy is organizing leaders and activists living abroad. Plans are being made to arrange large rallies and seminars involving expatriate leaders and activists living in the United Kingdom, the United States, and India.

Through this, attempts will be made to boost the morale of leaders and activists inside the country. It has been reported that several leaders and activists from the US have already traveled to India to meet with the party chief. Expatriate leaders and activists from other countries are also announcing on social media that they are heading to India.

In addition, the party will continue its efforts to create diplomatic pressure by highlighting Bangladesh’s political situation to international human rights organizations and influential countries. Party sources indicated that contact is being maintained with international organizations and lobbyists for this purpose.

Through this, the AL aims to reinforce among internal leaders and activists the perception of securing international support.

Earlier, Hasina held a press conference in India through a forum of journalists working for international media outlets. She spoke virtually without being physically present there. The Bangladesh government had conveyed a strong reaction to India centered around that press conference.

A member of the AL’s secretarial committee said the application for renewing the passport or NID is not merely an administrative process; it holds political significance as well. Through this, a message is being sent that Hasina intends to keep the formal process of returning to the country active.

According to him, the government is violating human rights by refusing to issue the passport and NID. Plans are also in place to raise these matters before international human rights organizations and legal forums in the future.

According to political analysts, although the likelihood of Hasina returning to the country in person during December is slim, the AL will try to display its maximum strength on the streets and online centered on her return announcement. However, doubts remain over how visible these programs will be due to the ban on the party’s activities, the absence of top leaders, and organizational weakness at the field level.  

When asked, political analyst Mohiuddin Ahmad told Agamir Somoy, “Political programs in our country tend to be slightly higher in December due to various reasons, including the weather. In particular, all parties make various preparations around Victory Day. Since the AL’s politics revolves around the Liberation War, they create hype over the Victory Day issue and will try to do so this time as well. However, as the party’s activities are legally banned and many senior leaders are fleeing abroad, it remains uncertain how visible it will be this time.”

Professor Kazi Mohammad Mahbubur Rahman of the Department of Political Science at University of Dhaka said, “Political leaders generally adopt multifaceted strategies while staying outside the country to maintain the morale of party workers and keep organizational activities functional. Hasina’s application for a passport and NID is also part of that strategy.

“In reality, Hasina’s return to the country is not happening anytime soon due to various reasons, including politics, diplomacy, and legal complications. However, to keep the morale of workers inside the country high over the issue of her return, they aim to attract the attention of the international community by creating instability and sabotage in the country ahead of December.

“This type of strategy is essentially an attempt to mislead workers or signal their existence. In the reality of field conditions, it will not have much impact on the public mind.”