NCP's Reshuffle: Asif goes north, Patwari moves south

Asif Mahmud Sajeeb Bhuiyan was primarily a voter at Muradnagar of Cumilla. Before the national parliamentary elections, he transferred his name to the voter list at Dhaka's Dhanmondi. He had intended to run as a candidate in the Dhaka-10 constituency.

However, he did not participate in the parliamentary elections held last February. Later, the National Citizen Party (NCP) had decided to field him as their mayoral candidate for the upcoming elections of Dhaka South City Corporation.

Just as preparations for that election were picking up pace, he suddenly had his name removed from the Dhanmondi voter list and transferred it to Aftabnagar. This area falls under the jurisdiction of Dhaka North City Corporation.

On Sunday, when NCP spokesperson Asif Mahmud disclosed this information, another leader of the party, Nasiruddin Patwari, also moved his name from Dhaka North to the voter list of Dhaka South, on the same day.

The interchanges of constituencies by the two top-level NCP leaders has sparked curiosity in political circles.

No official announcement has been made by the party. However, talking to party leaders one can have a glimse of what's going on---that a strategic shift is underway regarding the upcoming city elections. This will likely change the previous candidate list. At the same time, they are moving towards contesting the elections independently, without alliances.

In the NCP, a party formed by the youth who led the July uprising, Asif Mahmud serves as the spokesperson, while Nasiruddin Patwari holds the position of chief coordinator.

Although Asif did not participate in the parliamentary elections held in February, Patwari contested from the Dhaka-8 constituency. He lost to BNP Standing Committee member Mirza Abbas by a margin of 5,000 votes.

Subsequently, when discussions about local elections arose, NCP Convener Nahid Islam announced the party's mayoral candidates for five city corporations, including the two in Dhaka, back in March.

At that time, it was announced that NCP spokesperson Asif Mahmud would contest for the mayor's post in Dhaka South, while the party's Senior Joint Convener Ariful Islam Adib would run in Dhaka North.

As the Election Commission is preparing for local government elections, including issuing rules and regulations, the recent steps taken by these two top NCP leaders signal a different intent. This is because while participation in parliamentary elections is unrestricted, contesting in local elections requires to be a franchiser of that specific constituency.

Patwari in the South, Asif in the North

Nasiruddin Patwari was previously a voter in the Uttara area, which falls under Dhaka North City Corporation. Recently, he applied to the EC to change his stamping area.

After necessary verification and official procedures, his application was approved. Consequently, he is now a voter in the Dhaka-8 parliamentary constituency, which is under Dhaka South. This is the same constituency from which he had contested the parliamentary election.

On the other hand, Asif Mahmud also recently applied to the EC to change his voting area. He shifted his voter location from Dhanmondi (Dhaka South) to Aftabnagar (Dhaka North).

Talking to multiple sources within the NCP, it has been learned that the matter of fielding Patwari in Dhaka South and Asif Mahmud in Dhaka North as mayoral candidates is now being seriously considered.

A top-level NCP leader, speaking on condition of anonymity regarding the future, told Samay (Time), "Recently, leaders at the party's policymaking level have informally asked Nasiruddin Patwari in Dhaka South and Asif Mahmud in Dhaka North to start preparing for the mayoral elections. Accordingly, they have changed their voting areas. If everything goes favorably, an official announcement may come later."

NCP leaders say that changes to the candidate list can occur depending on the political situation, ground realities, and broader political equations. The change in the two leaders' voting areas is linked to this process.

In this case, potential electoral strategy also plays a role, as learned from discussions with NCP leaders. They believe that Asif Mahmud's political activities involve relatively higher engagement with young and Gen-Z voters. Internal party surveys also indicate that he has good acceptance among young voters in the Dhaka metropolitan north area.

On the other hand, a significant part of Nasiruddin Patwari's political activities has been centered around the Dhaka-8 parliamentary constituency. Despite his defeat in the parliamentary election, NCP leaders believe his organizational and political base in Dhaka South has grown even stronger.

A section of the party believes that fielding Patwari in the South and Asif Mahmud in the North would allow them to leverage both leaders' own political recognition, voter acceptability, and ground-level organizational positions.

The NCP's potential new strategy surrounding the Dhaka South City Corporation election becomes even more significant due to Jamaat-e-Islami's candidate. In the South, Jamaat has preliminarily finalized former Dhaka University Central Students' Union (DUCSU) Vice President Mohammad Abu Sadik (Sadik Kayem) as their mayoral candidate. Consequently, if the NCP ultimately fields Patwari in the South and Jamaat fields Sadik Kayem, a direct contest could emerge between the two parties from the same political spectrum.

Preparing to Contest Independently

Although the NCP contested the parliamentary elections in alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami, it is preparing to fight the local government elections independently. The party is moving forward with organizational activities, planning to field separate candidates not just for city corporations but also at the Upazila, municipality, and union levels.

Multiple NCP leaders have said that candidates have already been announced for about 100 Upazilas and municipalities. Candidates for another 100 Upazilas and municipalities have been finalized. Names of these candidates will be announced in phases by September.

At the same time, preparations are underway for Union Parishad elections. The party is working with the goal of fielding NCP-backed candidates for chairman positions in approximately 4,600 unions across the country. Organizational activities are being pushed forward with the aim of announcing union-level candidates by November.

According to NCP leaders, they do not see local government elections merely as electoral competition; rather, they view them as a crucial opportunity to test the party's organizational expansion, popularity, and grassroots capabilities nationwide.

Sarwar Tushar, Joint Convener of the NCP and head of its Media Subcommittee, told Samay, "No final decision has been made yet regarding the local government elections. Various discussions are ongoing both within and outside the party."

On the other hand, NCP's Chief Organizer Sarjis Alam said, "We will contest the elections independently. Keeping that in mind, the NCP is working rapidly at the grassroots level to strengthen organizational capacity."

He informed that candidates have already been announced for 100 Upazilas and municipalities. Candidates for another 100 Upazilas and municipalities will be announced by September. At the same time, candidates for five city corporations have also been announced.

Sarjis Alam added that the names of candidates for the remaining city corporations will also be revealed within this month. Additionally, the party is working with the goal of fielding NCP-backed candidates from every union down to the ward level across the country.