No relief from load shedding until heat subsides

Gas-cargo shortages have further depleted the supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), disrupting electricity generation at gas-based power plants at a time when electricity demand is surging. Meanwhile, shortages of coal and liquid fuel, alongside maintenance issues and technical glitches, have constrained overall power generation, driving up load shedding across the country.

Officials from the Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources Division have said gas supplies will not improve until LNG imports normalize, and load shedding will not subside until the intense heat eases.

Data from the Power Development Board (PDB) shows that peak electricity demand reached 17,699 MW last Thursday, against an average demand of 16,000 to 16,500 MW. Load shedding peaked at 3,664 MW that day. On Friday, a weekly holiday, demand dropped by nearly 1,000 MW, yet load shedding still reached 3,244 MW at midnight. As daytime demand ebbed, load shedding fell slightly to 1,483 MW by 3:00 PM, against a demand of 14,684 MW.

On Wednesday midnight, another holiday, load shedding hit 2,828 MW. Earlier, on August 10, load shedding reached a record 3,757 MW as demand surpassed 17,000 MW.
Image drawn by AI.
Starting August 9, severe load shedding averaged around 3,500 MW daily for a week. Although power cuts temporarily eased after that period, rising temperatures over the past three days have pushed load shedding upward once again.

Prolonged outages and frequent power interruptions have left people struggling under the oppressive heat, taking a severe toll on women, children, the elderly, and the sick. Factory owners and small entrepreneurs face significant disruptions to operations and revenue. Outside Dhaka, particularly in rural areas, severe power cuts persist. Load shedding temporarily declines when it rains or temperatures drop, only to surge whenever temperatures rise.

To alleviate power cuts in rural regions, scheduled load shedding was introduced in Dhaka on the night of August 12. However, the plan to limit outages to a single one-hour slot per area each day is frequently breached.

PDB Chairman Engineer Md. Rezaul Karim said that high temperatures have driven up demand while gas supply to power plants was reduced to prioritize industrial production. Decreased output from coal-fired power plants has further compounded the crisis. Authorities are attempting to mitigate the deficit by increasing generation from oil-fired power plants.

Although Bangladesh has the capacity to generate 12,500 MW of electricity from gas, fuel shortages consistently prevent full utilization, limiting output to between 5,000 and 5,500 MW under normal conditions. Recent gas supply drops have dragged average generation down to 5,000 MW.

Coal-fired power plants—another vital pillar of the grid—have an installed capacity of nearly 6,500 MW, but total coal generation recently dropped below 5,000 MW.

Technical faults have taken one unit of the Payra power plant in Patuakhali offline, while a unit at the Matarbari plant is undergoing routine maintenance. Additionally, two units at the Barapukuria coal power plant suffer from technical glitches, alongside broader coal shortages affecting production across several facilities.
In addition, while the Indian company Adani usually supplies around 1,500 MW of electricity, coal shortages over the past few days have reduced its supply to an average of 900 to 1,000 MW.

Although Bangladesh has an installed capacity of 6,400 MW in oil-fired power plants, actual generation averages between 2,000 and 2,500 MW. When load shedding spikes—especially at night—production from these oil-based plants is ramped up. Although preparations were made to generate up to 4,000 MW using furnace oil, outstanding dues owed to private plant owners prevent full utilization.

Increasing generation from oil-fired plants also threatens to sharply swell PDB's financial losses and the government's subsidy burden, forcing authorities to proceed with caution.

Mahmud Hasan Khan, President of BGMEA (the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association) and Managing Director of Rising Fashions, said that soaring global LNG prices have brought the cost of generating electricity from LNG and furnace oil close to parity. However, importing furnace oil incurs a 30% duty compared to just 5% on LNG. He suggested that lowering the furnace oil duty to 5% for the next 6 months to a year would significantly reduce furnace oil–based power generation costs under current conditions.

Further Reduction in Gas Supplies

Petrobangla data indicates that total gas supply continues to decline due to falling LNG imports. LNG delivery dropped from 77–78 million cubic feet per day four days ago to an average of 72 million cubic feet per day recently. Combined with 161–162 million cubic feet per day from domestic gas fields, total daily gas supply stands at roughly 233 million cubic feet.

Official estimates place daily gas demand at 380 million cubic feet, though actual demand ranges between 500 and 550 million cubic feet. Under normal circumstances, roughly 265 million cubic feet of gas is supplied daily.

Energy and Mineral Resources Division officials noted that while both floating LNG terminals in Moheshkhali are operational, delivery rates were deliberately curtailed to prevent sudden, severe disruptions as import shipments face delays. The two terminals have a combined daily re-gasification capacity of nearly 110 million cubic feet. Although the plan was to supply an average of 75 million cubic feet per day, the lack of incoming cargoes has forced daily reductions.

A cargo scheduled to arrive today, Saturday, will not deliver as planned. However, two cargoes have been confirmed for September 1 and September 4, which may temporarily boost gas supplies once received. Nevertheless, energy officials see little prospect of immediate relief, as high spot-market prices and weak supplier participation make sustaining steady LNG flows difficult. To manage shortages, the government has been forced to import LNG from the open market at more than double the standard price.

Prof. Dr. M. Shamsul Alam, Energy Advisor to the consumer rights group CAB, emphasized that long-standing structural crises cannot be resolved overnight. He urged the government to implement austerity across all areas and eliminate unnecessary expenditures accumulated in the power and energy sector over time. He stressed that without structural reforms, mismanagement, indiscipline, and losses will persist, leaving the crisis unresolved. For immediate mitigation, he recommended scaling up solar power generation and expediting the startup of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant.